June 17 — a turning point for Bitcoin: analysis of the first Fed meeting under Warsh
The Federal Reserve meeting on June 17 could be a key event for the cryptocurrency market, although a rate cut is not expected. Against the backdrop of 4.2% inflation and geopolitical risks related to a potential escalation between the US and Iran, the regulator is likely to maintain a hawkish tone. However, by December, the market is preparing for the first rate cut of the cycle. Under these conditions, Bitcoin retains the potential to move toward the $67,000 mark.
Inflation, Oil, and Geopolitics
US inflation rose to 4.2% — the first time since May 2023. The key driver was high oil prices, which remain above the market-sensitive level amid the conflict with Iran. The 14-point memorandum published by an Iranian agency looks more like a US capitulation: Iran retains its nuclear program, missile arsenal, and control over the Strait of Hormuz, while receiving the unfreezing of $24 billion and the lifting of sanctions. For markets, the signing will bring short-term positivity, but in my assessment, large capital will lock in profits on the rise.
The key factor is oil. If the Strait of Hormuz opens and prices decline, inflationary pressure will ease, and the situation will change dramatically.
The Fed Scenario and Bitcoin's Reaction
The first meeting with Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair will likely pass without a rate cut — the probability of this in June is about 5%. A sharp easing with inflation above 4% would be a political mistake. I expect hawkish rhetoric in words with technical easing in practice: changing the Fed's balance sheet structure through selling short-term and buying long-term securities will lower yields without starting the printing press.
On the day of the meeting, a false decline (minus 1.5–2% on the S&P) is possible due to a hawkish tone at the press conference, followed by a recovery to neutral or slightly positive levels by the close. Next: July — a pause with a hawkish tone, September — market preparation for normalization (35–40% probability of a cut with inflation around 3.7–3.8%), December — the first 25 basis point cut with a 60–65% probability. The main risk to the forecast is a new escalation in the Middle East and oil above $100.
Bitcoin will react 100% to the meeting: over the last five Fed meetings, the reaction was unstable (three declines, two increases). After testing the $60,000 zone, the asset began to recover. Holding the $62,000 level opened up potential for a move to $67,000 in the coming weeks. However, this is a local bounce, not a trend reversal — based on historical cycles, the market bottom may form closer to autumn.
My conclusion: June 17 will be a stress test for Bitcoin. If the Fed confirms readiness for easing by year-end, we will see a short-term impulse to $67,000. But amid persistent inflation and geopolitical risks, I recommend viewing this as an opportunity for a tactical entry, not as a signal for a long-term reversal. Autumn could bring a deeper correction.