The quantum threat to Ethereum has become a reality: Google has reduced the hacking threshold by 20 times, but protection is already on the way
The cryptocurrency world is entering a new era. In March 2026, the Google Quantum AI research team presented results that fundamentally change the understanding of blockchain security. According to this data, cracking Ethereum's cryptographic protection will require approximately 20 times less computational resources than previously thought. This is not about a distant hypothetical threat—specific timelines have already been announced, and so far, only one blockchain network is seriously preparing to counter the attack.
Threshold Lowered: What Does This Mean for Ethereum?
Previously, experts estimated that cracking the ECDSA electronic signature scheme, which protects every Ethereum account, would require tens of thousands of logical qubits. Google's new work reduces this estimate to approximately 1,200 qubits. The company considers such a forecast quite realistic and has already set an internal deadline for transitioning its own systems to post-quantum protection—2029.
Why is this critical? ECDSA is a digital signature algorithm used to verify every transaction. When you send funds, your public key is revealed on-chain. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could compute the private key from it and drain the wallet. Current quantum systems are not yet capable of this, but 1,200 qubits is already a concrete benchmark that engineers can work towards. Notably, about 0.1% of funds in the Ethereum network are already on addresses with exposed public keys—such wallets are vulnerable today.
The threat affects not only ETH holders. At risk are validator signatures, data availability guarantees, and zero-knowledge proof systems that underpin most rollup protocols. All this infrastructure relies on mathematics that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could break.
Ethereum Takes Action: Team, Prize, and Hard Fork
The Ethereum Foundation is not waiting idly. In January 2026, a dedicated Post-Quantum Security team was assembled under the leadership of Tom Coratger. It operates fully transparently—all results are published on the project's website. One of the key researchers, Justin Drake, considers protection against the quantum threat one of the main strategic tasks.
The Foundation announced the Poseidon Prize—a $1 million award for breakthrough solutions in hash-based cryptography. These developments rely on three post-quantum cryptography standards approved by NIST in August 2024.
In the near term, EIP-8141 is being considered—a standard that implements account abstraction at the network level and gives each account the right to choose its own signature scheme. It is planned to be included in the Hegota hard fork, scheduled for the second half of 2026. Ethereum aims to complete its technical restructuring by approximately 2029—the same milestone that Google has set for its own systems.
For those who want to protect themselves today, the Foundation's Kohaku project is suitable. It allows anyone to create a quantum-resistant smart account based on the ERC-4337 standard, which relies on account abstraction. No hard fork is needed for this, and the cost of the procedure on the first-layer test network is approximately $0.07.
The Rest of the Blockchain Industry: Silence
None of the major blockchains have responded to the threat like Ethereum. Bitcoin, Solana, and others face similar vulnerabilities: the ECDSA signature scheme is used across the industry. However, no project has assembled a dedicated post-quantum security team or presented a comparable action plan.
The figure of 1,200 qubits is not yet a verdict: to bring quantum hardware to this level, serious engineering challenges must be solved. But a 20-fold reduction in risk assessment, especially following one of the most advanced quantum programs in the world, is not a signal that the rest of the market can continue to postpone.
Expert Opinion: Ethereum demonstrates a proactivity rare for the crypto industry. While other market participants remain silent, the Foundation is already laying the groundwork for post-quantum security. Investors and developers should closely monitor developments: those who fail to prepare for 2029 risk being left in the dust.