June 17 — a bifurcation point: how the first Fed meeting under Warsh will change Bitcoin's trajectory
June 17 could become a turning point for the entire crypto market, although a key rate cut should not be expected at this meeting. US inflation has accelerated again to 4.2% — the highest since May 2023, and now the main question is not when the Fed will begin easing, but what rhetoric the new head of the regulator, Kevin Warsh, will choose. Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran and high oil prices, inflationary pressure remains a critical factor.
I have carefully analyzed the current macroeconomic configuration. The key driver of rising inflation is oil, which remains above a psychologically significant level. If the situation in the Strait of Hormuz de-escalates and black gold prices decline, it will fundamentally change the landscape for the Fed. However, for now, the memorandum published by the Iranian agency looks more like a US capitulation than a balanced deal. Iran retains its nuclear program and control over the strait while receiving asset freezes. For markets, this is a short-term positive, but large capital will likely use the rise to lock in profits.
Warsh's Scenario: Tough Words, Soft Actions
The first meeting under Warsh's leadership, in my assessment, will pass without a rate change — the probability of this is 95%. Any sharp easing with inflation above 4% would be political suicide. However, what is interesting is not so much the decision itself, but the technical details. I expect the Fed to implement Operation Twist — selling short-term securities and buying long-term ones. This would lower long-term bond yields without activating the printing press, which is de facto a soft step under tough rhetoric.
On the day of the meeting, I forecast a false downward move in the S&P 500 index of 1.5–2% in response to the hawkish tone of the press conference, followed by a recovery to neutral or slightly positive levels by the close. The scenario thereafter is as follows: July — a pause with a hawkish tone, September — market preparation for normalization (35–40% probability of a cut with inflation around 3.7%), December — the first 25 basis point cut with a 60–65% probability. The main risk to this forecast is a new escalation in the Middle East and oil above $100.
Bitcoin: Bounce to $67,000, But Not a Trend Reversal
Bitcoin, as a highly sensitive asset, will react 100% to the Fed meeting. Historically, over the last five meetings, the reaction has been unstable: three declines and two increases. After testing the $60,000 zone, the asset began to recover. Holding the $62,000 level has opened up potential for a move to $67,000 in the coming weeks.
My professional analysis: This bounce is local in nature and is not a reversal of the bearish trend. Based on historical cycles, the market bottom is likely to form closer to autumn, when the effect of the first rate cut begins to manifest in the real economy. The current rise to $67,000 is a correction within a broader downward channel, and investors should be prepared for volatility after June 17. The strategy of averaging down on dips remains the most reasonable in current conditions.