SpaceX IPO is just the starting gun: analysts point to three hidden deals in the space economy
SpaceX's historic stock listing was not the finale, but merely a starting point for a whole series of new opportunities in the space sector. My analysis shows that the true value of this story unfolds not in the IPO itself, but in the subsequent waves of capital flow.
Let me remind you of the key figures: SpaceX placed 555 million shares at $135, raising $75 billion. Trading opened at $150, reached an intraday high of $176.52, and closed the first session at $161.11, representing a 19.3% increase. The company's market capitalization exceeded $2 trillion, instantly making it the sixth-largest public organization in the U.S., and Elon Musk became the world's first trillionaire.
How My Price Forecast Worked
Back on April 3, I publicly stated my position on SpaceX and launched my own space index. I identified the UFO ETF as the closest exchange-traded analogue to the company, with its quotes tracking SpaceX's stock movement with a coefficient of determination R² of about 87–88%. This indicates an almost complete alignment in dynamics.
The price aligned almost exactly with the scale of targets I had predicted. My reports tracked five levels: SpaceX's internal fair valuation at $1.25 trillion, secondary trades on the Forge platform with a valuation of about $1.53 trillion, the IPO target of $1.75 trillion, and synthetic perpetual contracts SPCX on Hyperliquid and Binance, which implied $2.2–2.4 trillion.
According to my data, the secondary market was undervaluing the company, while synthetic contracts signaled a sharp move on the first day. However, Hyperliquid's 36% premium was a speculative ceiling, not a target. The close at $161.11 with a market cap just above $2 trillion landed exactly between the IPO target and the synthetic premium. Sellers on Forge at the equivalent of $129 lost about 25% of potential profit, while buyers of the perpetual contract on Hyperliquid at $200 ended up at a loss.
Where to Look for Opportunity Now
My main conclusion: the IPO was not the end of this deal. It is a signal to start three new ones. The first is a compression of quotes due to SpaceX's inclusion in stock exchange indices, which will begin in the next fifteen trading days. The second is a capital flow from securities that investors used as substitutes for SpaceX before its exchange listing into the real supply chain of the space industry. The third is an emerging reversal against the market in the stocks of major defense contractors, which the market has undervalued.
Of particular interest, in my view, is the hidden part of the supply chain that I highlighted back in late May: companies from Taiwan, South Korea, and the UK, largely ignored by Wall Street's space portfolios. It is these names, I believe, that could benefit in the coming years as the space economy grows.
My expert conclusion: The SpaceX story teaches that in pre-IPO markets, the truth lies between the price of the last private round and the most leveraged leg of a synthetic instrument. Institutional and retail investors who received shares at the placement price of $135 locked in a 19% profit in one day. But the main game is just beginning — keep an eye on the hidden links in the space supply chain.