June 17 is a turning point for Bitcoin: the first Fed meeting under the new chair.
The Federal Reserve meeting on June 17 will be a key event for the cryptocurrency market, although a rate cut is not expected. Against the backdrop of accelerating U.S. inflation to 4.2% — the highest since May 2023 — and geopolitical risks related to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, the regulator is likely to maintain a hawkish stance. However, based on my analysis, the market is already pricing in the first rate cut for December, which opens up potential for Bitcoin to move toward the $67,000 level in the coming weeks.
Inflation, Oil, and Geopolitics: What's Pressuring the Market
U.S. inflation has risen to 4.2% — a concerning signal. The main driver of price increases remains oil, which stays at high levels due to tensions in the Middle East. The discussed memorandum between the U.S. and Iran, in my assessment, looks more like a capitulation by Washington: Tehran retains its nuclear program, control over the Strait of Hormuz, and receives $24 billion in unfrozen assets. Markets may react with short-term positivity, but large capital is likely to lock in profits on the rise. If the strait opens and oil prices decline, inflationary pressure will ease — this would change the entire picture.
Fed Scenario: Tough Words, Soft Actions
Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair will pass without a rate change — I estimate the probability of a cut in June at 5%. A sharp easing with inflation above 4% would be a political mistake, so the regulator will choose a tactic of "tough words with soft actions." I expect a change in the balance sheet structure through selling short-term and buying long-term securities — this will lower yields without starting the printing press.
On the day of the meeting, a false sell-off (minus 1.5–2% on the S&P 500) is possible due to a hawkish tone at the press conference, followed by a recovery to neutral levels. According to my forecast: July — a pause with a hawkish tone, September — market preparation for normalization (35–40% probability of a cut with inflation around 3.7–3.8%), December — the first 25 basis point cut with a 60–65% probability. The main risk is a new escalation in the Middle East and oil above $100.
Bitcoin: Rebound to $67,000
Bitcoin will react 100% to the meeting — historically, reactions to the last five Fed meetings have been unstable (three declines, two gains). After testing the $60,000 zone, the asset began to recover. Holding the $62,000 level opened up potential for a move to $67,000 in the coming weeks. However, I view this as a local rebound, not a trend reversal. Based on historical cycles, the market bottom may form closer to autumn.
My professional opinion: The market is overestimating the probability of a soft landing. Inflation remains persistent due to structural factors (oil, geopolitics), and any rate cut will be delayed. For Bitcoin, this means volatility in the $60,000–$67,000 range with a risk of retesting support levels. Investors should prepare for a "bear market rally," not the start of a new bull cycle.