Standard Chartered: DeFi market to grow to $2.7 trillion by 2030 — what's behind the forecast
Scaling the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector to $2.7 trillion by the end of 2030 is not just an ambitious goal, but a quite realistic scenario that I am analyzing based on the latest data. The key driver is the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and the evolution of on-chain protocols, which can breathe new life into traditional financial instruments.
Currently, by my estimates, only about 3% of stablecoin supply and 10% of RWAs are utilized in DeFi. By 2030, this share could grow to 30%, providing a 37-fold increase in total value locked (TVL). However, reaching the $2.7 trillion mark will require a ninefold increase in the share of tokenized value in protocols — this is a serious challenge for the infrastructure.
Key risks and barriers
Not all market participants share the optimism. Axis CEO Chris Kim points to the problem of liquidity fragmentation: issuing the same asset on different blockchains creates costs and reduces efficiency. Ondo Finance Head of Sales Oya Celiktemur rightly notes that tokenization itself does not turn illiquid assets into liquid ones — mechanisms of market demand and secondary trading are needed.
Standard Chartered highlights Uniswap as a potential epicenter for RWA trading. Institutional investors, in my opinion, will choose this platform due to its reputation and security. Partnerships with traditional finance could narrow the gap in Uniswap's market capitalization with Coinbase, which would be an important step for legitimizing DeFi.
Let me remind you that in June, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted a shift in advisor interest from bitcoin to stablecoins and RWAs — this confirms the trend toward institutionalization of the sector.
My expert conclusion: Standard Chartered's forecast looks ambitious but not fantastical. The key factor will be not so much technology, but regulation and trust from institutions. If RWAs truly begin to be massively tokenized, $2.7 trillion is just the first stage. However, without solving the liquidity fragmentation problem and creating unified standards, the market risks remaining at the $500–700 billion level.