The SpaceX IPO is just the first shot: analysts point to three hidden deals in the space economy
SpaceX's stock listing was a historic event, but in my deep conviction, this is merely the starting point for a much larger game. The largest IPO in history raised $75 billion, and the company's market capitalization instantly exceeded $2 trillion, making Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire. However, the true value of this deal is revealed not in the moment, but in the subsequent waves.
SpaceX placed 555 million shares at $135. Trading opened at $150, reached an intraday high of $176.52, and closed at $161.11, showing a 19.3% gain in the first session. This is a brilliant result, but it only confirms my long-standing thesis: the secondary market systematically undervalued the company, and synthetic perpetual contracts (SPCX) on Hyperliquid and Binance, which priced the valuation at $2.2–2.4 trillion, signaled an inevitable sharp move on the first day. Hyperliquid's 36% premium turned out to be a speculative ceiling, not a target — the close at $161.11, right between the IPO target and the synthetic premium, confirms this.
Sellers on the Forge platform, who sold shares at the equivalent of $129, lost about 25% of potential profit. Buyers of the perpetual contract on Hyperliquid at $200, on the other hand, ended up at a loss. The lesson here is crystal clear: the truth lies between the price of the last private round and the most overloaded synthetic instrument.
Three new deals that are starting now
SpaceX's IPO is not the finale, but a signal to start three new trends. The first is a compression of quotes due to SpaceX's inclusion in stock indices, which will begin in the next fifteen trading days. The second is a capital flow from securities that investors used as substitutes for SpaceX before its stock market debut into the real supply chain of the space industry. The third is an emerging reversal against the market in shares of major defense contractors, which the market has undervalued.
Of particular interest, in my opinion, is the hidden part of the supply chain. Companies from Taiwan, South Korea, and the UK, largely ignored by Wall Street's space-themed portfolios, could benefit in the coming years as the space economy grows. It is these names, not just SpaceX itself, that are capable of delivering the highest returns.
My conclusion: Institutional and retail investors who received shares at the placement price of $135 locked in a 19% profit in one day. But the real game is just beginning. The space economy is not one company, but an entire ecosystem, and those who focus on its hidden links will come out ahead. As I always say: in pre-IPO markets, the truth lies between the price of the last private round and the most overloaded leg of the synthetic instrument. SpaceX brilliantly confirmed this.