SpaceX IPO is Just the Beginning: Analysts Point to Three Hidden Deals in the Space Economy
SpaceX's stock listing became the largest IPO in history, but according to experts, this is not the end, but a starting shot for a new wave of investment opportunities. The main bet is now shifting to the ecosystem around the company, rather than the company itself.
SpaceX placed 555 million shares at $135, raising $75 billion. Trading opened at $150, the price rose to $176.52, and closed the first session at $161.11 — a gain of 19.3%. The market capitalization exceeded $2 trillion, instantly making the company the sixth-largest among U.S. public companies. Elon Musk became the world's first trillionaire.
How the price forecast worked out
As early as April 3, I published the first thesis on the SpaceX IPO and launched my own space index. I identified the UFO ETF as the closest stock market equivalent to the company: its quotes tracked the movement of SpaceX shares by approximately 87–88% (the coefficient of determination R² — a measure of how accurately one asset tracks the dynamics of another, where 100% means a perfect match).
The price aligned almost exactly with the scale of targets predicted by my analysis. The reports tracked five levels: SpaceX's internal fair valuation at $1.25 trillion, secondary trades on the Forge platform with a valuation of about $1.53 trillion, the IPO target of $1.75 trillion, and synthetic perpetual contracts SPCX on Hyperliquid and Binance, which implied $2.2–2.4 trillion.
I argued that the secondary market was undervaluing the company, and synthetic contracts signaled a sharp move on the first day, but the Hyperliquid premium of 36% was a speculative ceiling, not a target. The close at $161.11 with a market cap just above $2 trillion landed exactly between the IPO target and the synthetic premium. Sellers on Forge at the equivalent of $129 gave up about 25% of potential profit, while buyers of the perpetual contract on Hyperliquid at $200 ended up at a loss.
Where to look for opportunities now
The main takeaway: the IPO was not the end of this deal. It is a signal for the start of three new ones. The first is a compression of quotes due to SpaceX's inclusion in stock indices, which will begin in the next fifteen trading days. The second is a flow of capital from securities that investors used as substitutes for SpaceX before its stock market debut into the real supply chain of the space industry. The third is an emerging reversal against the market in shares of major defense contractors, which the market has undervalued.
Of particular interest is the hidden part of the supply chain, which I highlighted back in late May: companies from Taiwan, South Korea, and the UK, mostly ignored by Wall Street space portfolios. It is these names, in my view, that could benefit in the coming years as the space economy grows.
From the SpaceX story, I draw a lesson applicable beyond it: in pre-IPO markets, the truth lies between the price of the last private round and the most leveraged synthetic instrument. Institutional and retail investors who received shares at the offering price of $135 locked in a 19% profit in one day.
My expert opinion: The SpaceX IPO is not a peak, but a foundation. The real value lies not in the stock itself, but in those building the infrastructure for its missions. Investors who focus on hidden suppliers, rather than big names, will gain access to the next major round of growth in the space economy.