June 17 is a turning point for Bitcoin: the first Federal Reserve meeting under the new chair.
The Federal Reserve meeting on June 17 could be a key event for the cryptocurrency market, although a key rate cut is not expected. Against the backdrop of 4.2% inflation and geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, the regulator is likely to maintain a hawkish tone, but the first easing in a long cycle is being prepared for December. Under these conditions, Bitcoin shows potential for a move toward $67,000.
The macroeconomic picture is shaping up to be challenging. US inflation rose to 4.2% — the first time since May 2023, and importantly, the trend has reversed upward. The main driver is high oil prices, which remain above the painful market threshold amid the conflict in the Persian Gulf. The discussed deal between the US and Iran, in my assessment, looks more like a capitulation by Washington: Tehran retains its nuclear program, control over the Strait of Hormuz, and gets $24 billion unfrozen. This is short-term positive for markets, but large capital is likely to take profits on the rise.
The key factor is oil. If the Strait of Hormuz opens and prices decline, inflationary pressure will ease, and the situation will change dramatically.
Scenario for the new Fed Chair and Bitcoin's reaction
Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair will most likely pass without a rate cut — I estimate the probability of this in June at only 5%. A sharp easing with inflation above 4% would turn Warsh into a "puppet" and trigger a sharp rise in bond yields.
A hawkish tone in words is expected, with technical easing in practice: changing the Fed's balance sheet structure by selling short-term and buying long-term securities, which lowers yields without running the printing press. On the meeting day, a false market sell-off (minus 1.5–2% on the S&P) is possible due to a hawkish press conference tone, followed by a recovery to neutral or slightly positive levels by the close.
Further, according to my analysis: July — a pause with a hawkish tone, September — market preparation for normalization (35–40% probability of a cut with inflation around 3.7–3.8%), December — the first 25 basis point cut with a 60–65% probability. The overall probability of at least one cut by year-end is 60%, and a hike is nearly zero. The main risk to the forecast is a new escalation in the Middle East and oil above $100.
Bitcoin, as shown by the last five Fed meetings, reacts extremely erratically: three declines, two gains. After testing the $60,000 zone, the asset began to recover. Holding the $62,000 level opened up potential for a move toward $67,000 in the coming weeks. However, I view this as a local bounce, not a trend reversal. Based on historical cycles, the market bottom may form closer to autumn.
My conclusion: June 17 is not a rate day, but a tone day. The market will trade signals, not numbers. Bitcoin may show local growth, but fundamentally I remain cautious until autumn, when the macroeconomic picture becomes clearer.