SpaceX IPO is Just the Start: Analysts Point to Three Hidden Deals in the Space Economy
The largest initial public offering in history was not the finale, but merely the opening salvo. After SpaceX's stock market debut, the focus shifts to the ecosystem that is beginning to build up around the company. It is there, in my assessment, that the most interesting opportunities are currently taking shape.
SpaceX placed 555 million shares at a price of $135, raising $75 billion. Trading opened at $150, the price rose to $176.52, and ended the first session at $161.11 — an increase of 19.3%. Market capitalization exceeded $2 trillion, instantly making SpaceX the sixth-largest public company in the U.S. Elon Musk became the world's first trillionaire.
How the price forecast worked out
As early as April 3, I publicly stated my position on this asset and launched my own space index. I identified the UFO ETF as the closest stock market analogue to SpaceX: its quotes tracked the movement of SpaceX shares by approximately 87–88% (the coefficient of determination R² — a measure of how accurately one asset tracks the dynamics of another, where 100% means a perfect match).
The price aligned almost exactly with the scale of targets predicted by my analysis. I tracked five levels: SpaceX's internal fair valuation at $1.25 trillion, secondary trades on the Forge platform with a valuation of about $1.53 trillion, the IPO target of $1.75 trillion, and synthetic perpetual contracts SPCX on Hyperliquid and Binance, which implied $2.2–2.4 trillion.
The secondary market undervalued the company, and synthetic contracts signaled a sharp move on the first day, but Hyperliquid's 36% premium was a speculative ceiling, not a target. The close at $161.11 with a market cap slightly above $2 trillion landed exactly between the IPO target and the synthetic premium. Sellers on Forge at the equivalent of $129 gave up about 25% of potential profit, while buyers of the perpetual contract on Hyperliquid at $200 ended up at a loss.
Where to look for opportunities now
My main conclusion: the IPO was not the end of this deal. It is a signal for the start of three new ones. The first is a compression of quotes due to SpaceX's inclusion in stock indices, which will begin in the next fifteen trading days. The second is a capital shift from securities that investors used as substitutes for SpaceX before its stock market debut into the real supply chain of the space industry. The third is an emerging reversal against the market in the shares of major defense contractors, which the market has undervalued.
Of particular interest, in my view, is the hidden part of the supply chain, which I highlighted back in late May: companies from Taiwan, South Korea, and the UK, largely ignored by Wall Street space portfolios. It is these names, I believe, that could benefit in the coming years as the space economy grows.
From the SpaceX story, I draw a lesson applicable beyond it: in pre-IPO markets, the truth lies between the price of the last private round and the most leveraged synthetic instrument. Institutional and retail investors who received shares at the offering price of $135 locked in a 19% profit in one day.
My assessment: the space economy is entering a phase of maturity, and the highest returns will come not from the giants themselves, but from their second- and third-tier suppliers. Investors should take a close look at little-known technology companies providing infrastructure for SpaceX and its competitors — that is where the potential comparable to the early days after the IPO is hidden.