Standard Chartered: DeFi volume will grow to $2.7 trillion by 2030 — a 37-fold surge driven by RWA and tokenization
The decentralized finance sector is poised for a massive leap. According to my analysis based on the latest data, the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols could reach $2.7 trillion by the end of 2030. This represents a 37-fold increase from current levels.
Key Drivers: RWA and On-Chain Protocols
The key catalysts for this surge will be real-world assets (RWA) and the development of on-chain infrastructure. Currently, only 3% of stablecoin supply and 10% of RWA are utilized in DeFi. By 2030, this share could grow to 30%. Achieving the target of $2.7 trillion would require a ninefold increase in the share of tokenized value within protocols.
Challenges Ahead: Liquidity and Fragmentation
However, not everything is smooth sailing. Several experts point to serious risks. Axis CEO Chris Kim warned that issuing the same asset on different blockchains creates fragmented liquidity and increases operational costs. Ondo Finance's Director of Sales, Oya Celiktemur, rightly noted that tokenization alone does not "magically" make illiquid assets liquid—real market mechanisms are needed for that.
Uniswap as a Hub for RWA Trading
Uniswap's position deserves special attention. This protocol is seen as a potential hub for RWA trading. Institutional players are likely to choose it due to its high reputation and security. Partnerships with traditional finance could help Uniswap narrow the market cap gap with centralized exchange Coinbase. In June, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan already noted that advisors have shifted interest from Bitcoin to stablecoins and RWA.
My Expert Commentary
The $2.7 trillion forecast looks ambitious but is quite realistic if the liquidity fragmentation issue is resolved. However, investors should remember that DeFi growth will be uneven, and the key success factor will be integration with traditional financial institutions. Without this, even tokenization does not guarantee liquidity.