Standard Chartered predicts explosive growth of DeFi to $2.7 trillion by 2030
Analysts at Standard Chartered have presented an ambitious forecast for the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector. According to their estimates, the total value locked (TVL) in protocols could reach a staggering $2.7 trillion by the end of 2030. This implies nearly a 37-fold increase from current levels, making this forecast one of the most optimistic in the market.
The key drivers of this growth will be two areas: tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and the development of on-chain protocols. Currently, according to experts, only about 3% of the total stablecoin supply and roughly 10% of all tokenized RWAs are utilized in DeFi. By 2030, this share could grow to 30%, which would ensure such a significant capital inflow.
Scaling and Hidden Risks
To reach the $2.7 trillion mark, a ninefold increase in the share of tokenized value used in DeFi protocols will be required. However, not all market participants share this optimism. Some experts point to fundamental issues. For example, issuing the same asset on different blockchains creates fragmented liquidity, which increases operational costs and complicates arbitrage. Moreover, tokenization itself is not a "magic wand"—it does not automatically turn illiquid assets into liquid ones without creating real demand and infrastructure.
Standard Chartered also highlighted Uniswap as a potential beneficiary of this trend. Analysts believe that institutional players will choose this platform for trading RWAs due to its reputation and high level of security. Partnerships with traditional finance, in their view, could help Uniswap significantly narrow the market capitalization gap with giants like Coinbase.
My expert commentary: Standard Chartered's forecast looks quite ambitious, but it underscores a key trend—the institutionalization of DeFi through RWAs. However, investors should remember that realizing such a scenario will require not only technological progress but also addressing regulatory issues and creating unified liquidity standards. Without this, the market risks remaining fragmented, which would slow its growth.