Whales completed the sell-off: Bitcoin bounced from the bottom thanks to a reversal in supply from large holders
The Bitcoin market has undergone a phase shift: panic selling by long-term holders has exhausted itself, and now major players — whales — have begun actively accumulating the asset. According to my data, on June 14, the twelve-day decline in the aggregate supply of whales (wallets with a balance of 100 BTC or more) officially reversed into growth. This reversal coincided with a sharp rebound in the BTC price to $65,704.89 and a reduction in the inflow of old coins to exchanges.
The process can be divided into three distinct stages. The first — from June 1 to 4 — was marked by a sharp surge in activity of old coins: the Inflow CDD indicator, which measures the movement of long-dormant funds, soared to 2.16 million. This drove the price down from $71,300 to $63,800. The second stage — from June 5 to 10 — was a phase of absorption: at the bottom around $61,400, whales bought up over 11,400 BTC (approximately $700 million), moving them to cold wallets. The Exchange Whale Ratio, which reflects the share of large transactions in the incoming flow to exchanges, rose to 62.3% — whales were literally "absorbing" panic selling. The third stage — from June 11 to 14 — led to a supply deficit. Inflow CDD fell from 2.16 million to nearly zero (just 33,000), signaling a complete halt in selling by long-term holders.
Why the bottom proved resilient
The main conclusion I draw from this data is that the capital transfer from less resilient holders to large HODLers is complete. Whales have solidified the $60,000–$61,500 range as a strong support level for the BTC price. The reversal in whale supply on June 14 is not a short-term technical bounce, but a change in the very structure of the market. Given the depletion of exchange reserves and the movement of accumulated coins into long-term storage, the path of least resistance for Bitcoin is now upward.
My opinion: this cycle resembles the classic "weak hands capitulation" scenario — panic selling by small holders is being absorbed by institutional players. If the dynamics of whale supply continue to strengthen, we could see a test of the $68,000–$70,000 zone in the coming weeks. However, it is worth monitoring macroeconomic factors, as regulatory pressure could disrupt this upward trend.