Standard Chartered: By 2030, DeFi could reach $2.7 trillion — a fundamental shift in market structure
Analysts at Standard Chartered have presented an ambitious forecast for the decentralized finance (DeFi) sector: by the end of 2030, the total value locked (TVL) in protocols could grow to $2.7 trillion. This represents a 37-fold increase from current levels.
The key drivers of this growth will be real-world assets (RWAs) and the development of on-chain infrastructure. Currently, only 3% of stablecoin supply and 10% of RWAs are utilized in DeFi protocols. By 2030, this figure could reach 30%. This means tokenized assets will begin to be actively used not just as a store of value, but as full-fledged instruments for liquidity and yield generation.
However, scaling to $2.7 trillion will require a ninefold increase in the share of tokenized value in DeFi. There are significant obstacles on this path. Chris Kim, head of Axis, warns that issuing the same asset on different blockchains creates fragmented liquidity and increases operational costs for market participants. Additionally, according to Ondo Finance's Head of Sales, Oi Celiktemur, tokenization alone does not solve the liquidity problem of illiquid assets — it is not a "magic wand."
Standard Chartered's focus is on Uniswap. The platform is seen as a potential hub for RWA trading. Analysts believe institutional players will choose Uniswap due to its reputation and security. Partnerships with traditional finance could help Uniswap close the market capitalization gap with Coinbase.
This forecast aligns with a broader trend: consultants and institutional investors are increasingly shifting their focus from Bitcoin to stablecoins and RWAs, as previously noted by Bitwise. The market is clearly preparing for the next phase — the tokenization of the real world.
My comment: Standard Chartered's forecast looks quite realistic, considering the current pace of tokenization and interest from traditional finance. However, the main risks are liquidity fragmentation and regulatory barriers. Without unified standards and cross-chain interoperability, growth could slow down. Nevertheless, if these issues are resolved, DeFi truly faces exponential growth.