Whales have completed their sell-off: Bitcoin has found a solid bottom — analysis
The Bitcoin market has experienced a classic cycle of panic selling followed by accumulation. My on-chain data analysis shows that large holders (whales) have fully completed the distribution phase and have reversed their supply upward, triggering a price bounce to $65,704.89. The transfer of coins from weak hands to strong hands is complete.
Three-Phase Structure of Selling and Absorption
The first phase, occurring from June 1–4, was characterized by an avalanche-like inflow of "old" coins onto exchanges. The Inflow CDD indicator (a measure of activity from coins that have not moved for a long time) surged to 2.16 million, crashing the price from $71,300 to $63,800. This was a typical panic by long-term holders.
The second phase — absorption — unfolded from June 5–10. At the low around $61,400, whales stepped in: over 11,400 BTC (approximately $700 million) were withdrawn from exchanges to cold wallets, reflected in a Negative Netflow. The Exchange Whale Ratio, which shows the share of large transactions in the incoming flow, jumped to 62.3% — whales were actively "absorbing" panic sales.
The third phase — a bounce and reversal — occurred from June 11–14. As sellers dried up, a sharp supply deficit formed in the market. The Inflow CDD indicator fell from 2.16 million to nearly zero (just 33,000), signaling a complete halt in selling by large long-term holders.
Formation of a Solid Bottom
Key takeaway: On June 14, the aggregate supply of whales (wallets with a balance of 100 BTC or more) officially reversed upward. This is not a short-term technical bounce, but a shift in the very structure of the market. The $60,000–$61,500 range is now established as a solid support level.
Given the depletion of exchange reserves, the path of least resistance for Bitcoin is now upward. The available supply for sale on exchanges is decreasing, and coins accumulated by large holders are moving into long-term storage.
My expert opinion: This structure is a classic bullish signal. When whales stop selling and start accumulating at the bottom, and panic sellers exit, the market lays the foundation for a new upward movement. The next target is a test of the $68,000–$70,000 zone, and if the current dynamics hold, we could see it within the coming weeks.