The panic sell-off of bitcoin is over: whales bought the bottom and reversed the market
The Bitcoin (BTC) market has undergone a significant structural shift. After a two-week phase of panic selling and aggressive accumulation by major players, we are witnessing a clear trend reversal. My calculations, based on on-chain data, confirm that the wave of capitulation by short-term holders is completely exhausted, and the initiative has passed to the whales.
Three-Phase Model: From Dumping to Accumulation
The first phase unfolded from June 1 to June 4. Old coins that had been dormant for years flooded onto exchanges. The Inflow CDD (Coin Days Destroyed) metric surged to 2.16 million, triggering a price collapse from $71,300 to $63,800. This was classic panic: weak hands offloaded assets at local lows.
The second phase — a period of absorption from June 5 to June 10 — proved to be the turning point. At the bottom around $61,400, whales entered the game. Over several days, more than 11,400 BTC (approximately $700 million) were withdrawn from exchanges to cold wallets. The key indicator — the Exchange Whale Ratio — jumped to 62.3%, signaling that large holders were actively absorbing panic selling, preventing the price from dropping further.
The third phase — a bounce and reversal from June 11 to June 14. After the selling flow dried up, an acute supply shortage emerged in the market. Inflow CDD plummeted from 2.16 million to nearly zero (just 33,000). This is direct evidence that long-term holders have ceased all selling activity.
Why the Bottom is Reliably Formed
On June 14, the aggregate supply of whales (wallets with a balance of 100 BTC or more) officially turned upward. This reversal triggered a powerful price bounce to $65,704. I interpret this not as a local technical rebound, but as a change in the very structure of the market. The $60,000–$61,500 range now serves as a solid support level, consolidated by the largest holders.
Exchange reserves are depleted, and coins are moving into long-term storage. The path of least resistance for Bitcoin is now upward. The logic is simple: the available supply for sale is shrinking, while demand from institutions and whales is only growing.
Expert opinion: We are witnessing a classic pattern of capital redistribution from retail panickers to "smart money." If the current dynamics persist, the $65,000–$67,000 zone will become the first target for a bullish move. However, the key confirmation level remains a breakout above $68,000 followed by consolidation.