Standard Chartered: The DeFi market will grow to $2.7 trillion by 2030 — analysis and risks
Analysts at Standard Chartered have presented an ambitious forecast: the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols could reach $2.7 trillion by the end of 2030. This represents a 37-fold increase from current levels. The main drivers of this explosive growth will be the tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) and the development of on-chain protocols.
Currently, according to experts, only 3% of all stablecoins and 10% of all tokenized RWAs are utilized in DeFi. By 2030, the share of these assets used in decentralized protocols could grow to 30%. However, achieving the target of $2.7 trillion will require a ninefold increase in the share of tokenized value involved in DeFi.
Pitfalls of Tokenization
Despite the optimism, the industry faces serious challenges. Chris Kim, head of Axis, warns about the problem of liquidity fragmentation: issuing the same asset on different blockchains creates fragmented pools and increases operational costs. Oya Celiktemur, Director of Sales at Ondo Finance, adds that tokenization itself is not a "magic wand" for turning illiquid assets into liquid ones. It is merely a technological layer, not a solution to fundamental market problems.
Uniswap as a New Hub for Institutional Trading
The Standard Chartered report particularly highlights Uniswap as a potential hub for RWA trading. Analysts believe institutional players will choose this platform due to its high reputation and security. In their view, a strategic partnership with traditional finance (TradFi) could help Uniswap close the market capitalization gap with Coinbase.
Recall that in June, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted that advisor interest is shifting from Bitcoin to stablecoins and RWAs, confirming the overall trend toward institutionalization of the sector.
My comment: Standard Chartered's forecast looks extremely optimistic, but it is based on a realistic premise—the exponential growth of tokenization. However, the key risk remains liquidity fragmentation. Until the industry solves the issue of interoperability between blockchains and creates unified liquidity pools, the 37-fold growth may remain just a theoretical model. Investors should closely monitor the development of cross-chain solutions and RWA standards.