Analysts at Standard Chartered predict explosive growth of DeFi to $2.7 trillion by 2030.
The decentralized finance (DeFi) market is on the verge of a massive leap. Based on my estimates, grounded in the latest data, the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi protocols could reach $2.7 trillion by the end of 2030. This represents a 37-fold increase from current levels. Key catalysts for this process will be tokenized real-world assets (RWA) and the further development of on-chain infrastructure.
Currently, only about 3% of all stablecoins and 10% of RWAs are utilized in DeFi protocols. By 2030, I expect the usage share of these assets to grow to 30%. Such a scenario would require a ninefold increase in the share of tokenized value circulating within the DeFi ecosystem. This trend will become the primary driver of the industry.
However, one must not forget the challenges. Axis project lead Chris Kim rightly points out the issue of liquidity fragmentation. Issuing the same asset on different blockchains creates isolated pools, increasing operational costs and reducing efficiency. Ondo Finance's Head of Sales, Oya Celiktemur, also emphasizes that tokenization itself is not a "magic wand" that instantly turns illiquid assets into liquid ones.
As a potential hub for RWA trading, I highlight Uniswap. Institutional investors are likely to choose this platform due to its impeccable reputation and high level of security. Partnerships with traditional finance could help Uniswap close the market capitalization gap with centralized giants like Coinbase.
This forecast fully aligns with recent observations: the interest of consultants and institutional players is shifting from Bitcoin towards stablecoins and RWAs. The market is maturing for a new era — the era of tokenization.
My analysis: The figure of $2.7 trillion looks ambitious but not fantastical. Given the current pace of RWA adoption and institutional interest, DeFi is indeed on the brink of a giant leap. However, investors should closely monitor liquidity issues and regulatory risks, which could slow down this process.