The Quantum Race: The US Maintains Leadership, but China Accelerates — SCSP Analysis
The United States maintains a slight but noticeable advantage over China in the field of Quantum Information Science, Engineering, and Technology (QISET). However, as my analysis of a recent report from the analytical organization Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP) shows, this gap is rapidly narrowing and could disappear entirely within the next few years.
The assessment was conducted across five key areas: innovation, industrial capacity, market ecosystem, talent pool, and government levers. In four out of five categories, the US still leads. The only area where China surpasses its competitor is government management, thanks to a centralized strategy, strong state support, and long-term planning.
US Strengths: Science, Software, and Capital
American researchers are achieving outstanding results, accounting for 35% of the most cited scientific publications on quantum technologies in 2025. For comparison, China's share is 23%. The US advantage is particularly notable in quantum error correction, where 55% of the most cited patents in this field belong to American authors, compared to 18% for Chinese authors.
The US software ecosystem remains dominant. Tools such as IBM's Qiskit and Google's Cirq are used by developers worldwide. In December 2025, Qiskit downloads exceeded 450,000, while its Chinese counterpart, PyQPanda, was downloaded just over 4,000 times. Private investment in the US quantum sector reached approximately $5.3 billion by 2024, and the number of deployed quantum computers is estimated at 39–73 units.
China Narrows the Gap: Materials, Algorithms, and Networks
China's progress is most evident in three areas. In advanced quantum materials, Chinese researchers contribute about 50% of the most impactful publications, compared to 20% for their American counterparts. In quantum algorithms, China surpassed the US in patents in 2025 by a ratio of roughly 5:2. However, the most impressive lead is in quantum networks. China has deployed a Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) system spanning a total of 6,277 miles and a direct quantum communication network covering 186 miles. In comparison, the largest US projects are limited to test segments of 124 and 98 miles.
Manufacturing and Talent: Risk Zones for the US
In the industrial sphere, the cost gap for scaling is becoming critical. Building cleanrooms in the US costs $800–$1,000 per square foot, whereas in China it is around $150, with regional authorities subsidizing up to 30% of the costs. The talent issue also contributes to narrowing the gap: since 2020, China has been producing 50% more STEM PhDs annually than the US, and the growth rate of this indicator since 2000 is three times higher.
Money and Strategy: Different Models
Government funding for quantum technologies in China reached approximately $15 billion by the end of 2024, while comparable US investments over the past seven years totaled about $6 billion. The American model remains decentralized, relying on universities, startups, and major tech companies. The Chinese model is centralized, relying on state laboratories and long-term plans.
My expert assessment: Neither model is unconditionally superior. The outcome of the quantum race will be determined not so much by the amount of funding as by the ability to translate laboratory breakthroughs into scalable, sustainable, and commercially viable systems. The US retains an advantage in innovation and software, but China demonstrates a systematic approach and a willingness to invest in infrastructure. In the next 3–5 years, we may witness a change in leadership if the US does not accelerate the commercialization of quantum technologies.