Unlocking Hormuz: How Cheaper Oil Will Reshape the Landscape for Crypto Investors
For the first time in nearly two months, American drivers are seeing gasoline prices below $4 per gallon. This became possible after Washington and Tehran reached a preliminary agreement to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. In the White House, this détente is being quickly credited to the administration, but a professional look at commodity markets suggests that sustainable recovery is still far off.
The decline in fuel prices has been recorded for the third consecutive week. Since May 21, the average price of a gallon of gasoline in the US has dropped from $4.56 to $4.12. Oil quotes have also fallen, dipping below the psychological mark of $100 per barrel. The agreement with Iran pushed prices below the $4 mark, but the current level is still 28% higher than a year ago, when Americans paid $3.13 per gallon.
Gasoline prices fall after deal with Iran
The agreement concerns the Strait of Hormuz — under normal conditions, a fifth of all global oil passes through this waterway. On June 15, the international benchmark Brent fell by 5% to $83.13, down about 30% from its March peak of $119.50 per barrel. The presidential administration expects tanker traffic to increase to about 50 vessels per day in the coming days, compared to the current 25. For comparison, before the conflict began, about 130 ships crossed the strait daily.
Trump's victory and risks for the market
However, the euphoria in the market may be premature. According to the US Energy Information Administration, the country's strategic petroleum reserve has fallen to its lowest level since 1983. Essentially, the market has lost a safety cushion in case of a new shock. Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and former advisor to George W. Bush, warns: the industry will need to replenish a historic loss of 1.5 billion barrels of supply. This process, in his estimation, will take many weeks and months, and the current stabilization is only a temporary respite.
What low oil prices mean for the crypto market
Consumer inflation in the US rose from 2.4% in February to 4.2% in May — the highest since April 2023. The Federal Reserve, led by Kevin Warsh, is set to meet this week. Analysts do not expect a rate change, but regulatory officials may abandon language hinting at readiness to lower borrowing costs.
The decline in oil prices eases inflationary pressure — this could facilitate a decision to lower rates later this year. For Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole, lower rates and slowing inflation are among the most transparent factors encouraging investors to shift toward riskier assets.
My analysis: The détente around Hormuz is a positive signal for the macroeconomy, but I would not advise crypto investors to bet on it right now. The oil market is still fragile, and any new geopolitical shift could push inflation back up. The real "bullish" scenario for Bitcoin is a sustained Fed rate cut, not a temporary respite in commodity markets. Watch the regulator's rhetoric, not the tankers in the Persian Gulf.