The Quantum Race: The US is still ahead, but China is closing in
The United States maintains a narrow but tangible lead in quantum information science, engineering, and technology (QISET). However, this gap is rapidly narrowing and could disappear entirely within a few years. This conclusion is contained in a detailed analytical report, The Quantum Competition, prepared by the research organization Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP).
Experts assessed the positions of the two leading global powers across five key parameters: innovation, industrial capacity, market ecosystem, talent pool, and government levers. The U.S. leads in four of them. The only category where China surpasses its competitor is government levers, a direct consequence of Beijing's centralized strategy, strong state support, and long-term planning.
U.S. Strengths: Innovation and Capital
The American ecosystem demonstrates impressive results in scientific influence. U.S. researchers account for 35% of the most-cited scientific publications on quantum technologies in 2025. For comparison, China's share is 23%. The U.S. advantage is particularly notable in quantum error correction: 55% of the most-cited patents in this field belong to American authors, while China holds only 18%.
The software ecosystem is another trump card for the U.S. Global developers predominantly use American tools, such as IBM's Qiskit (over 450,000 downloads as of December 2025) and Google's Cirq. For comparison, China's counterpart, PyQPanda from Origin Quantum, has been downloaded just over 4,000 times. In the market segment, announced private investment in the U.S. quantum sector reached approximately $5.3 billion by 2024, and the number of deployed quantum computers is estimated in the range of 39–73 systems, compared to 15–18 in China (though the latter figure may be understated due to lower transparency).
China's Breakthrough: Materials, Algorithms, and Networks
Beijing demonstrates explosive progress in several critical areas. In the segment of advanced quantum materials, Chinese researchers contribute about 50% of the most influential publications, a result of coordinated efforts among universities, state laboratories, and national institutions. In quantum algorithms, China surpassed the U.S. in patents in 2025 by a ratio of approximately 5:2.
China's most impressive advantage is in quantum networks. The country has deployed a quantum key distribution (QKD) system over fiber-optic lines totaling 6,277 miles, as well as a direct quantum communication network spanning 186 miles. In the U.S., comparable projects are currently limited to regional test sites. Meanwhile, Washington deliberately does not prioritize QKD, citing challenges in technology implementation.
Manufacturing and Talent: A Risk Zone for the U.S.
The industrial section of the report reveals a troubling trend for America. Building high-class cleanrooms necessary for quantum equipment manufacturing costs $800–1,000 per square foot in the U.S., compared to about $150 in China, where regional authorities subsidize up to 30% of costs. In the talent block, China is also increasing pressure: since 2020, the country has been graduating over 50% more STEM PhDs annually than the U.S., with Chinese output growing three times faster than American output since 2000.
Money and Strategy: Different Models
Government funding for quantum technologies in China is estimated at approximately $15 billion by the end of 2024, while comparable U.S. investments over the past seven years total about $6 billion. The American model remains decentralized, relying on universities, startups, and major tech companies. The Chinese model is based on state laboratories, industrial hubs, and long-term plans.
My Analysis: The outcome of this race will be determined not so much by scientific breakthroughs as by the ability to quickly translate research into scalable and resilient systems. The U.S. is currently winning due to its innovation ecosystem and private capital, but China, with its scale of government funding and centralized planning, has every chance to seize the initiative in the next 3–5 years, particularly in industrial production and infrastructure deployment. For the crypto industry, this means that issues of quantum resilience for blockchains and encryption algorithms are becoming not hypothetical, but urgent.