Unlocking the Strait of Hormuz: How Cheaper Oil is Changing the Rules of the Game for the Crypto Market
For the first time in nearly two months, American drivers are seeing gasoline prices below $4 per gallon. This became possible after the US and Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The White House considers this a credit to Donald Trump, but analysts point out that the global oil market is still far from a sustainable recovery.
The decline has been ongoing for the third consecutive week. Since May 21, the average national fuel price has dropped from $4.56 to $4.12, and oil prices have fallen below $100 per barrel.
The agreement with Iran pushed prices below $4, but gasoline is still 28% more expensive than a year ago—when Americans paid $3.13 per gallon.
Gasoline prices drop after deal with Iran
The agreement concerns the Strait of Hormuz—a waterway through which about one-fifth of the world's oil typically passes. The international benchmark Brent fell 5% to $83.13 on June 15, declining roughly 30% from its March peak of $119.50 per barrel.
The White House noted that tanker traffic should increase in the coming days—to about 50 vessels daily compared to 25 currently. Before the war began, around 130 ships passed through the strait per day.
Trump's victory and market risks
According to the US Energy Information Administration, the strategic petroleum reserve has dropped to its lowest level since 1983. There is virtually no buffer left in the market for another shock.
Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy and a former White House adviser under George W. Bush, warned that the market still needs to replenish a historic loss of 1.5 billion barrels of supply—a process that will drag on for many weeks and months.
What low oil prices mean for the crypto market
US consumer inflation rose from 2.4% in February to 4.2% in May. This is the highest since April 2023. The Federal Reserve, now led by Kevin Warsh, is set to meet this week. Analysts do not expect a rate change, but Fed officials may drop language hinting at readiness to lower borrowing costs.
Lower oil prices ease inflationary pressure—this could make a rate cut decision easier later this year. For Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole, lower rates and slowing inflation are among the clearest factors encouraging investors to shift toward riskier assets.
My analysis: While the oil market is only beginning to stabilize, cryptocurrencies are receiving an indirect but powerful boost. The reduction of the geopolitical premium in energy prices could accelerate a shift in Fed monetary policy, which historically has been one of the main catalysts for BTC growth. However, full restoration of market confidence will take time, and investors should be prepared for volatility in the coming weeks.