The Quantum Race: The US is still ahead, but China is hot on its heels — SCSP analysis
The United States maintains a leadership position in quantum information science, engineering, and technology (QISET), but the gap with China is rapidly narrowing. According to a recent analysis by the Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP), the lead could disappear within a few years if current trends continue.
SCSP experts assessed the positions of the two powers across five key areas: innovation, industrial capacity, market ecosystem, talent pool, and government levers. The US dominates in four of them, lagging only in the last — China demonstrates impressive results thanks to a centralized strategy and strong government support.
Where the US maintains an advantage
American researchers account for 35% of the most cited scientific publications on quantum technologies in 2025, while China's share is 23%. However, China's growth rate is twice as high — the indicator has doubled over the decade. The US is particularly strong in quantum error correction: 55% of the most cited patents in this field belong to American authors compared to 18% for Chinese ones.
The software ecosystem also remains with the US. Tools like IBM's Qiskit and Google's Cirq have become the de facto standard: in December 2025, Qiskit downloads exceeded 450,000, while its Chinese counterpart PyQPanda barely reached 4,000. In private investment, the US is also ahead: by 2024, the announced volume was about $5.3 billion, and the number of deployed quantum computers is estimated at 39–73 units versus 15–18 for China.
China is accelerating its pace
Beijing is betting on materials, algorithms, and quantum networks. In advanced quantum materials, Chinese researchers generate about 50% of the top publications — a result of a long-term coordinated strategy. In quantum algorithms, China has surpassed the US in patents by a ratio of 5:2, although publications are still more often associated with American scientists.
The most impressive gap is observed in quantum networks. China demonstrated quantum key distribution (QKD) over a distance of 6,277 miles via fiber optic and deployed direct quantum communication over 186 miles. For comparison, the largest US projects — the Chicago Quantum Network (124 miles) and a test segment at Brookhaven National Laboratory (98 miles) — appear more modest. The US is deliberately not prioritizing QKD due to implementation challenges, which could become a strategic mistake.
Manufacturing and talent — a risk zone for the US
The cost of scaling production in the US remains a critical factor. Building clean rooms for quantum equipment costs $800–1,000 per square foot, while in China it is about $150, with regional authorities subsidizing up to 30% of costs. However, the US maintains an advantage in critical supply chain components: helium-3, cryogenic systems, and specialized lasers.
The talent issue also favors China. Since 2020, China has annually produced 50% more STEM PhDs than the US, and since 2000, the growth rate has been three times higher. The American system remains open to foreign researchers, but this does not compensate for the scale of Chinese training.
Funding and strategy
Government funding for quantum technologies in China reached approximately $15 billion by the end of 2024 — 2.5 times more than the $6 billion invested by the US over the past seven years. The American model remains decentralized, involving universities, startups, and large corporations, while the Chinese model relies on state laboratories and long-term plans.
Neither model is unconditionally superior. The outcome of the race will be determined by the ability to translate laboratory discoveries into scalable, sustainable, and operational systems more quickly. My assessment: if the US does not increase government funding and accelerate the deployment of quantum networks, leadership could shift to China by the end of the decade.