The Quantum Race: The US Maintains Leadership, but China is Hot on Its Heels — A Detailed SCSP Analysis
The United States still holds a small but noticeable advantage over China in the fields of quantum information science, engineering, and technology (QISET). However, as data from the latest report by the analytical organization Special Competitive Studies Project (SCSP) shows, this gap is rapidly narrowing and could be completely closed within the next few years.
In their study The Quantum Competition, SCSP experts conducted a comprehensive analysis of the positions of the two superpowers across five key areas: innovation, industrial capacity, market ecosystem, talent pool, and government levers of control. The results show that the U.S. leads in four out of five categories, but China demonstrates overwhelming superiority in the last one — due to a centralized state strategy, powerful financial support, and long-term planning.
U.S. Strengths: Innovation and Ecosystem
American researchers continue to dominate the scientific field, accounting for 35% of the most cited publications on quantum technologies in 2025. For comparison, China's share is 23%, although this figure has doubled over the past decade. The U.S. is particularly strong in quantum error correction, with 55% of the most cited patents belonging to American authors versus 18% for their Chinese counterparts.
The software ecosystem remains another trump card for the States. Tools such as IBM's Qiskit (over 450,000 downloads) and Google's Cirq have become global standards. In comparison, the Chinese equivalent PyQPanda from Origin Quantum has been downloaded just over 4,000 times. In the realm of private investment, the situation also favors the U.S.: by 2024, the volume of investments in the quantum sector reached approximately $5.3 billion, and the number of deployed quantum computers ranges from 39 to 73 systems.
China Accelerates: Materials, Algorithms, and Networks
China is demonstrating impressive progress in the segment of advanced quantum materials, providing about 50% of the strongest publications compared to 20% for American colleagues. This is the result of coordinated work by universities, state laboratories, and national structures. In the field of quantum algorithms, China has already overtaken the U.S. in patents by a ratio of 5:2, although Americans are still ahead in publications.
China's superiority is most evident in quantum networks. The country has deployed a quantum key distribution (QKD) system with a total length of 6,277 miles over fiber optic lines, as well as a direct quantum communication network spanning 186 miles. In the U.S., comparable projects are limited to regional test sites, with the National Security Agency not considering QKD a priority due to implementation challenges.
Production and Talent: Risk Areas for the U.S.
The industrial gap is becoming increasingly noticeable. Building clean rooms in the U.S. costs $800-1,000 per square foot, while in China it is about $150, with regional authorities subsidizing up to 30% of the costs. In the talent sector, China graduates over 50% more PhDs in STEM fields annually than the U.S., and since 2000, this rate has grown three times faster than the American one.
Government funding for quantum technologies in China is estimated at approximately $15 billion by the end of 2024, while U.S. investments over the past seven years have totaled about $6 billion. The American model remains decentralized, whereas the Chinese one relies on state laboratories and long-term plans.
My analysis: The outcome of this race will be determined not so much by scientific breakthroughs as by the ability of each system to translate laboratory results into scalable, reliable, and commercially viable products. China is betting on scale and centralization, while the U.S. relies on innovation and private initiative. So far, neither model has proven its unconditional superiority, but the pace at which China is closing the gap gives pause for thought.