The US-Iran deal shook the crypto market: Bitcoin broke through $66,000
The digital asset market received a strong boost following news of a preliminary truce between the US and Iran. Bitcoin firmly established itself above the $66,000 mark, and at one point on June 15, it rose to a local high of around $67,000. However, after a slight correction, the leading cryptocurrency is trading near $66,500. As President Donald Trump stated, the parties will sign the main document on June 19.
Altcoins are also showing positive momentum. Ethereum (ETH) broke through the $1,750 barrier, gaining 3% over the day. Solana (SOL) returned to $75 (+4%), while HYPE surged 10% to $72. The Fear and Greed Index, however, remains in the neutral zone, indicating caution among participants.
Geopolitical Background and Hidden Risks
The deal between Washington and Tehran involves opening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the blockade on Iranian ports. This will be followed by 60-day negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and possible sanctions relief. But observers remain cautiously optimistic: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that troops will remain in Lebanon, and Iran denied free passage through the strait, intending to impose "fees." This plants a time bomb under the fragile truce.
Technical Picture: Stabilization or False Breakout?
Analysts at Swissblock point to warning signals. The price momentum indicator remains at -1, while the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has dropped to a multi-year low of -1.7 million. In a bearish phase, momentum weakens first, then OBV falls, and only after that does the price move lower. A more confident recovery signal will appear when both indicators return to positive territory. Until then, the risk of forming a new bottom remains.
Glassnode, meanwhile, notes a decline in seller pressure and growing confidence among options traders. However, given weak trading volumes, open interest, and capital inflows, the current movement looks more like stabilization than a confirmed reversal. Galaxy Research reminds that the current Bitcoin cycle has not yet reached its bottom and suggests a possible drop to the $40,000–$46,000 range.
My Expertise: The market is pricing in geopolitical détente, but fundamental on-chain metrics do not confirm a sustainable bullish trend. Until momentum and OBV turn upward, any rally should be viewed as a correction within a broader downward channel. Investors should remain calm and not succumb to euphoria from temporary spikes.