The US-Iran deal has spurred Bitcoin: market reaction and hidden risks
Bitcoin has firmly established itself above the $66,000 mark, reacting to news of a preliminary truce between the US and Iran. Donald Trump confirmed that the main document will be signed on June 19, instantly inspiring buyers in the crypto market.
On the evening of June 15, the first cryptocurrency reached a local high just above $67,000, but then a slight correction followed. At the time of writing this analysis, the asset is trading around $66,500. Most coins in the top 10 by market capitalization are also showing positive dynamics: ETH surpassed $1,750 (+3% in 24 hours), SOL returned to $75 (+4%), and HYPE surged to $72 (+10%).
The deal between Washington and Tehran involves opening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the blockade on Iranian ports. After that, the parties will hold 60-day negotiations on Iran's nuclear program and a possible easing of sanctions. However, observers remain cautiously optimistic: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already stated that troops will remain in Lebanon, and Iran has denied claims about free passage through the strait, intending to impose "fees."
Weak buyer activity
Amid the uncertainty, analysts at Swissblock point to low engagement from Bitcoin buyers. The price momentum indicator is at -1, and the On-Balance Volume (OBV) has dropped to a multi-year low of -1.7 million. In a bearish phase, momentum weakens first, then OBV falls, after which the price moves lower. A more confident recovery signal will only appear when both indicators return to positive territory. Until then, the risk of forming a new bottom remains.
Meanwhile, Glassnode notes a decrease in seller pressure and growing confidence among options traders. However, given weak trading volumes, open interest, and capital inflows, the current movement looks more like stabilization than a confirmed reversal. Galaxy Research previously concluded that Bitcoin could drop to the $40,000-46,000 range, as the current market cycle has not yet reached its bottom.
Cryptalist Expert Opinion: The market is clearly pricing in a geopolitical détente, but fundamental indicators do not yet confirm a sustained upward trend. Buyers should be cautious: without an increase in volumes and a return of OBV to positive territory, any positive momentum could prove short-lived. Keep an eye on the Fear and Greed Index — it remains in the fear zone, indicating the fragility of the current rally.