The market capitalization of SpaceX has exceeded $3 trillion: the phenomenon of supply shortage
Shares of the space company SpaceX (SPCX) have experienced a dizzying surge, reaching a market capitalization of approximately $3 trillion. This figure allowed the company to surpass tech giants such as Amazon and Microsoft just days after its initial public offering, which valued it at $1.75 trillion. Such a leap is unprecedented for the US public company market.
This rapid growth seems inexplicable at first glance. However, the key to understanding it lies in the unique structure of the offering. During the IPO, only about 4% of the total issued shares were released to the market. The remaining 96% were locked up with insiders, employees, early investors, and large institutional holders, subject to a phased unlocking schedule.
It is this mechanism—an extremely low free float—that served as the catalyst for the explosive growth. When buyers enter the market, they face a microscopic volume of shares available for trading. There are virtually no sell orders in the order book. As a result, the price is forced to rise in leaps to "pull" any sellers into the market. Each new wave of buying pushes quotes significantly higher than previous levels.
An important nuance lies in the method of calculating market capitalization. It is computed based on all issued shares, including those locked-up 96%. Therefore, the final figure exceeds $3 trillion, even though only a small portion of the shares is actually in circulation. In essence, we are witnessing a classic example of a squeeze under conditions of extreme supply shortage.
What happens after the unlock?
Insiders are not yet allowed to sell their stakes. The first major batch of shares will hit the market in August, following the debut earnings report. Subsequent unlocking waves are tied to financial results in the fall, with the rest distributed up to December. Additionally, Elon Musk's shares are frozen for 366 days.
For now, supply is effectively locked, but this is temporary. With each unlocking date, the number of available shares will increase in waves. The balance could shift sharply once sellers gain access to the market. If current purchases were mostly speculative, a correction awaits. However, the very fact of achieving a $3 trillion valuation on such a small volume is a vivid demonstration of how capital structure can distort a company's real value on the public market.