Analysts are divided on bitcoin's day: from $30,000 to $59,000
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan urged long-term investors not to obsess over finding the exact bottom, but to focus on the next bitcoin bull cycle. The expert compared forecasts from three leading research firms — Galaxy Digital, NYDIG, and Standard Chartered, noting that there is no consensus on the end of the market correction.
Galaxy Digital: Optimism with Caveats
Galaxy Digital examined 13 indicators that historically signaled a market bottom. Currently, only four of them are confirmed. The company's analysts suggest that the bitcoin price could fall into the range of $30,000–$54,000, with the most likely support level being $40,000–$46,000. This indicates that the market has not yet reached full capitulation, and the correction may continue.
NYDIG: Close to Lows, but No Capitulation
NYDIG specialists note that current metrics are approaching the lows of past cycles, but there are no clear signs of final capitulation yet. However, institutional demand, in their view, could soften the depth of the pullback compared to previous cycles. This is an important signal: the participation of large players is changing market dynamics, making it more resilient to sharp declines.
Standard Chartered: Bottom Already Behind
The most optimistic forecast came from Standard Chartered analysts. They are convinced that the bottom has already been passed at the $59,000 mark and expect bitcoin to rise to $100,000 by the end of the year. This scenario is based on an improving macroeconomic situation and a restoration of confidence in risky assets.
Despite the range of figures, Hougan highlights three common takeaways from all the reports:
- the market bottom will be reached this year;
- the current price is closer to the bottom than to the peak;
- the long-term bullish trend remains intact.
In his view, for long-term investors, the exact entry point is not crucial if the asset is expected to grow to $100,000 or higher. Fundamental factors — rising national debt and inflation — continue to support bitcoin's value. However, risks such as the quantum threat and tightening regulation remain significant.
Analytical Conclusion: The range of forecasts from $30,000 to $59,000 reflects high uncertainty in the market, but the general consensus indicates that the bottom is near. Investors should focus on long-term trends rather than trying to guess the perfect entry point.