SpaceX reached a $3 trillion market capitalization: the paradox of 4% free float
SpaceX (SPCX) market capitalization has soared to around $3 trillion, surpassing giants like Amazon and Microsoft. The company crossed this threshold less than a week after its initial public offering, which valued it at $1.75 trillion. This rapid surge has drawn close attention from analysts, and as a leading expert at Cryptalist, I see this not just as success, but as a classic example of a market anomaly.
In just a few trading sessions, SpaceX has broken into the ranks of the most valuable public companies in the US. However, the reason for this dizzying rise lies not in fundamental indicators, but in a unique supply structure. Only about 4% of all issued shares were released to the market, while the remaining 96% are locked up with insiders, employees, early investors, and large institutional holders according to a phased unlocking schedule.
The Scarcity Mechanism: How 4% of Shares Create $3 Trillion
When buyers enter the market, they hit a tiny volume of tradable shares. There are virtually no sell orders in the order book, so the price is forced to jump upward to draw any sellers into the market. This is a classic "squeeze" scenario under conditions of supply scarcity. Market capitalization, in turn, is calculated based on all issued shares, including the locked-up 96%. Thus, the final figure exceeds $3 trillion, even though only a small portion of the shares are actually traded.
In my experience, this is one of the most striking examples of extremely low free-float mechanics on an unprecedented scale. Investors who do not understand this may mistakenly perceive $3 trillion as the company's true value, when in reality it is a temporary liquidity artifact.
What Will Change After the Unlock
Insiders are not yet allowed to sell: the unlocking is happening in stages. The first major batch will hit the market in August, following the debut earnings report. The next ones will come in the fall, tied to financial results, with the rest distributed through December. Additionally, Elon Musk's shares are locked for 366 days. With each unlocking date, the number of available shares will increase in waves.
For now, supply is effectively locked, but this will not last long. And if purchases were mostly speculative, the balance could shift sharply once sellers gain access to the market. I predict that after the first waves of unlocking, we will see a significant correction, bringing the market capitalization back to more realistic levels based on SpaceX's actual cash flows, rather than artificial scarcity.