Bitcoin: bottom not found? Analysts diverge in their assessments, but agree on the main point
Uncertainty reigns in the bitcoin market: leading research firms cannot reach a consensus on where the bottom of the current correction lies. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan analyzed forecasts from Galaxy Digital, NYDIG, and Standard Chartered, identifying both disagreements and common ground.
The most pessimistic scenario comes from Galaxy Digital analysts. They examined 13 historical market bottom indicators but found confirmation for only four. Their model suggests bitcoin could fall into the $30,000–$54,000 range, with the most likely support zone considered to be $40,000–$46,000. This indicates the market may still be far from a reversal unless a mass capitulation occurs.
NYDIG specialists take a more neutral stance. They note that current metrics are close to the lows of past cycles, but there are no clear signs of final capitulation yet. However, in their view, institutional demand could soften the depth of the pullback, making it less painful than in previous bearish periods.
The most optimistic outlook comes from Standard Chartered analysts. They are confident that the bottom has already been reached at $59,000 and expect a rise to $100,000 by the end of the year amid an improving macroeconomic environment. Such a forecast appears bold given current volatility, but it is supported by faith in the recovery of global liquidity.
Despite the range of figures, Hougan highlights three key points that unite all three reports:
- The market bottom will be reached within this year.
- The current price is closer to the bottom than to the cycle peak.
- The long-term bullish trend remains intact.
According to the Bitwise representative, for long-term investors, the exact entry point is not crucial if the asset will grow to $100,000 or higher in the long run. Fundamental factors—rising government debt and inflation—continue to support bitcoin's value. Among the risks, he highlights the quantum threat and tightening regulation.
Analyst's comment: The range of forecasts—from $30,000 to $59,000—reflects a high degree of uncertainty in the market. However, the general consensus that the bottom is near and the bullish cycle is not canceled gives investors a guide for strategic positioning. The main thing is not to try to catch the perfect entry point, but to evaluate the asset over a 12–18 month horizon.