SpaceX shares surged 32% after a record-breaking IPO: Analysis and outlook
Things are moving at an unprecedented pace in the space technology market. SpaceX shares, trading under the ticker SPCX, continue their steady rise following the historic initial public offering. On the second day of trading, the price is holding around $178, which is 32% above the IPO price of $135 per share set last week.
Trading started on June 12 at $135, and the company raised approximately $75 billion, making it the largest IPO in global market history. Investment bank Goldman Sachs managed the process. Investors submitted orders for roughly $250 billion, so the order book was oversubscribed more than three times even before the official stock exchange listing. Thanks to this result, the company more than doubled the previous global record — the $29.4 billion IPO of oil giant Saudi Aramco in 2019. On Friday, the SPCX price surged about 19% to $160.95, and on Monday, quotes rose to $192.
SpaceX's market capitalization after its Nasdaq listing is estimated at around $2.3 trillion. The company has landed among the world's most valuable public companies, and Elon Musk has retained his status as the first trillionaire — albeit only on paper for now. The massive volume of orders remains the key question. Experts are trying to determine whether the second wave of buying reflects genuine sustained demand or if there is still speculative froth in the market following the record oversubscription.
ETF issuers ride the wave
On Monday, asset management company GraniteShares launched the 2x Long SpaceX Daily ETF (SPAL) and 2x Short (SNK) exchange-traded funds. At the same time, provider Defiance brought its own double-long strategy (SPCU) to market. The SPAL fund has a fee of 1.50%. The instrument rebalances positions daily. As the managers themselves note, such a product is designed exclusively for short-term trading, not long-term investments.
Experienced players like ProShares, Direxion, and Leverage Shares have also joined the race. In total, ahead of the launch, regulators received about 25 applications for instruments linked to SpaceX. Earlier, Defiance's SPCL fund saw trading volume of around $10 million on its first day and gained about 46% before SPCX itself hit the market. The launch of new instruments is part of a strategy that single-stock leveraged funds have been using since 2022, when U.S. regulators approved them.
These figures clearly show how quickly retail investors are ready to make aggressive bets on individual stocks.
Risks and strategies for long-term investors
Similar interest is now shifting toward valuing SpaceX, although the current stock price has noticeably outpaced expected financial results for 2025. Due to daily position rebalancing, such funds can generate losses even when SPCX rises over a long-term horizon. The risk will increase significantly when more shares hit the market in the coming weeks.
On the other hand, some funds focused on SpaceX are not designed for short-term speculation at all. For instance, ARK Invest reported that it now holds SPCX in four active ETFs: ARKX, ARKQ, ARKK, and ARKW. This followed an initial investment through the closed-end ARK Venture Fund in 2023. The asset manager purchased about 3.3 million shares for roughly $444 million during the SPCX debut. As of the end of May, SpaceX's share in the ARK Venture Fund reached 11.38%, becoming the fund's largest position.
Expert comment: The market is clearly overheated by expectations. At a price exceeding $170, SpaceX's multiples look extremely inflated even for a company with such ambitions. Investors should remember that profit-taking may begin in the coming months, and the correction could be painful for those who entered at the peak of the hype. I recommend maintaining caution and not succumbing to euphoria — fundamental metrics do not yet justify such a high valuation.