Bitcoin at the bottom: analysts are divided, while Bitwise advises looking to the future
The bitcoin market is once again at the center of debate: leading analytical firms cannot agree on whether the bottom of the current cycle has been reached. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, commenting on the situation, urged long-term investors not to chase the perfect entry point, but to focus on the fundamental drivers of the next bull rally.
Comparing the forecasts of three key players — Galaxy Digital, NYDIG, and Standard Chartered — Hougan noted that their conclusions are diametrically opposed. Galaxy Digital, after analyzing 13 historical bottom indicators, found that only four are currently confirmed. Their model points to a possible drop into the $30,000–$54,000 range, with the most likely support zone at $40,000–$46,000. This suggests that the market has not yet fully purged weak hands.
NYDIG specialists hold a more cautious optimism: current metrics are close to the lows of past cycles, but there is no final capitulation — that moment of panic that traditionally ends a correction. However, they note that institutional demand could make this pullback shallower than in previous years, somewhat softening the bearish scenario.
The boldest forecast comes from Standard Chartered: in their view, the bottom has already been reached at $59,000, and by the end of the year, bitcoin could rise to $100,000 amid improving macroeconomic conditions. This sharply contrasts with Galaxy's estimates but reflects faith in the recovery of global liquidity.
Despite the range of numbers, all three reports converge on three key points: the bottom will be reached this year; the current price is closer to the bottom than to the peak; the long-term bullish trend remains intact. Hougan emphasizes that for an investor with a multi-year horizon, the exact entry point is not critical if the asset is expected to grow to $100,000 or higher. Fundamental factors — rising government debt and inflationary pressure — continue to support bitcoin's value as a hedge. The main risks are the quantum threat and tighter regulation.
My comment: The disagreement among analysts is not a sign of uncertainty, but a mirror of the current market phase. Historically, the strongest rallies have begun precisely at moments of maximum skepticism and divergence in forecasts. For those willing to hold positions for 12–18 months, $59,000 or $46,000 is merely a matter of psychology, not fundamentals.