Bitcoin: Analysts disagree on the bottom assessment, but agree on the main point
A paradoxical situation has emerged in the Bitcoin market: leading research firms cannot reach a consensus on where the bottom of the current correction lies. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, analyzing forecasts from Galaxy Digital, NYDIG, and Standard Chartered, urges long-term investors not to chase the perfect entry point but to focus on the next bull cycle.
Three Views on One Bottom
Analysts at Galaxy Digital examined 13 historical indicators that have traditionally signaled market bottoms. Only four of them have been confirmed so far. According to their model, Bitcoin could fall into the $30,000–$54,000 range, with the most likely support zone being $40,000–$46,000. This suggests that the current correction may not be over, and the market retains potential for further decline.
Specialists at NYDIG hold a more cautious optimism. They note that current metrics are approaching the lows of past cycles, but there are no clear signs of capitulation. However, in their view, institutional demand could soften the depth of the pullback compared to previous cycles. This is an important nuance: large players can act as a buffer against excessive volatility.
The boldest forecast came from Standard Chartered. Their analysts are confident that the bottom has already been reached at $59,000. They expect a recovery to $100,000 by the end of the year, based on improving macroeconomic conditions. This scenario assumes that the worst is already behind us and the market is ready for a new rally.
Common Denominator and Strategy
Despite the range of figures, all three reports converge on three key points: the market low will be reached this year; the current price is closer to the bottom than to the peak; and the long-term bullish trend remains intact. Hougan reasonably notes that for an investor with a multi-year planning horizon, the exact entry point is not critical if the asset is expected to grow to $100,000 or higher in the long run.
Fundamental drivers—rising government debt and inflation—continue to support Bitcoin's value as a store of value. However, risks should not be dismissed: the quantum threat and potential regulatory tightening could alter any optimistic scenario.
My expert conclusion: The market is in a phase of uncertainty where short-term movements can be deceptive. For long-term investors, the priority now is not to catch the perfect bottom but to accumulate positions during pullbacks, ignoring the noise. Those trying to guess the turning point risk missing the main move.