SpaceX's record-breaking surge: +32% in two days and a wave of credit ETFs on SPCX
Things are unfolding in a truly historic way on the SpaceX (SPCX) stock market. In just two days of trading after the largest IPO in history, the share price surged 32% above the offering price, reaching $178.
As a reminder, the initial public offering took place on June 12 at a price of $135 per share. The company raised approximately $75 billion, more than double the previous record set by Saudi Aramco in 2019 ($29.4 billion). Goldman Sachs acted as the underwriter. From the start, the order book was oversubscribed more than three times — investors submitted orders for roughly $250 billion, indicating enormous hype.
Performance and Market Capitalization
On Friday after the listing, SPCX jumped 19% to $160.95, and on Monday the rally continued, with quotes reaching $192 before stabilizing around $178. Thus, SpaceX's market capitalization after listing on Nasdaq is estimated at approximately $2.3 trillion. This places the company alongside the world's largest public corporations, and Elon Musk formally retains his trillionaire status.
The main question now is: does the second wave of buying reflect genuine sustainable demand, or is there only speculative froth left in the market after the record oversubscription?
Leverage for Everyone
ETF issuers were quick to respond to the hype. Already on Monday, GraniteShares launched the 2x Long SpaceX Daily ETF (SPAL) and 2x Short (SNK) exchange-traded funds. Almost simultaneously, Defiance brought its own double-long strategy (SPCU) to market. The SPAL fee is 1.50%, and the instrument rebalances positions daily — it is designed exclusively for short-term trading, not long-term investing.
Experienced players like ProShares, Direxion, and Leverage Shares also joined the race. In total, before the launch, regulators received about 25 applications for SpaceX-related instruments. For comparison, Defiance's SPCL fund saw trading volume of roughly $10 million on its first day and gained about 46% before SPCX itself hit the market.
These figures clearly show how quickly retail investors are willing to enter aggressive bets on individual stocks. However, it is worth remembering: due to daily position rebalancing, such funds can generate losses even if SPCX rises over a long horizon. The risk will increase significantly when more shares hit the market in the coming weeks.
Long-Term Strategies: ARK Invest Takes a Bet
At the same time, some funds focused on SpaceX are not at all geared toward short-term speculation. ARK Invest reported that it now holds SPCX in four active ETFs: ARKX, ARKQ, ARKK, and ARKW. This followed an initial investment through the closed-end ARK Venture Fund back in 2023.
The management company purchased approximately 3.3 million shares for about $444 million during the SPCX debut. As of the end of May, SpaceX's share in the ARK Venture Fund reached 11.38%, becoming the fund's largest position.
My comment: SpaceX's 32% rise in two days is undoubtedly an impressive result, but it is largely driven by an artificial liquidity shortage and oversubscription. Once additional shares hit the market (lock-up expiration), we may see a correction. Short-term speculators using leverage risk finding themselves in a vulnerable position. However, for long-term investors like ARK, the current valuation of $2.3 trillion may prove justified, given SpaceX's monopoly position in the space industry and its contracts with NASA and the Pentagon.