The bottom of Bitcoin: analysts cannot reach a consensus, but investors are advised not to panic.
The question of whether Bitcoin has reached its bottom remains open. Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan urges long-term investors not to fixate on finding the perfect entry point, but instead to focus on the prospects of the next bull cycle. He analyzed forecasts from three leading research firms — Galaxy Digital, NYDIG, and Standard Chartered — which, it turns out, reached different conclusions.
Where is the bottom? Three views on the market
Analysts at Galaxy Digital examined 13 historical indicators that traditionally signal a market bottom. Currently, only four of them are confirmed. According to their model, the price of Bitcoin could drop to a range of $30,000 to $54,000, with the most likely support level being the $40,000–$46,000 zone.
At NYDIG, on the other hand, they note that current metrics are already close to the lows of past cycles, but the key sign — a final market capitulation — is still absent. However, in their view, high institutional demand could make the current pullback shallower than in previous periods.
The most optimistic scenario is offered by analysts at Standard Chartered. They are confident that the bottom has already been passed at the $59,000 mark and expect a rise to $100,000 by the end of the year amid an improving macroeconomic situation.
Common denominator: the bull trend is alive
Despite the range of figures, Hougan highlights three common theses that unite all three reports:
- The market low will be reached within this year.
- The current price is significantly closer to the bottom than to the peak.
- The long-term bull trend remains in effect.
According to the Bitwise representative, for long-term investors, the exact entry point is not crucial if the asset is expected to grow to $100,000 or higher in the future. Fundamental factors — rising government debt and inflation — continue to support Bitcoin's value as a safe-haven asset. The main risks, he says, are a potential quantum threat and tighter regulation.
My comment: The range of forecasts from $30,000 to $59,000 as the bottom is classic uncertainty in a bear market. However, the key takeaway here is not the exact numbers, but that all three major players agree: the current level is a zone of accumulation, not distribution. For investors with a 2-3 year horizon, the priority now is not to catch the perfect moment, but not to miss the opportunity to enter the asset at an attractive price.