Bitcoin on the verge of a final reset: analysts predict a trend reversal
In my observation, the bitcoin market is in a critical phase. Despite the prolonged decline, several leading analysts agree: we are facing a final, conclusive wave of sell-offs, after which a solid bottom will form for sustainable growth. The current situation is unique—it combines rare signals we haven't seen since 2022.
The key reversal is occurring against the backdrop of two factors: forced deleveraging of borrowed positions and a sharp weakening of institutional demand. For the first time since 2022, Strategy sold part of its bitcoin holdings, and capital has been flowing out of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) week after week. This has stripped the market of its usual support and created a unique configuration of pressure.
Michael Nado: The final dump before the calm
Michael Nado, founder of the analytical project The DeFi Report, believes the deleveraging process for bitcoin and the largest coins is nearly complete. However, according to his data, there are assets that this wave has not yet touched. He cites HYPE, ZEC, and NEAR as examples. In his view, these will be the next candidates for a decline, though he does not specify exact timing or a catalyst.
Nado expects that in the near future, bitcoin dominance will increase amid overall market weakness. His scenario is simple: one more sell-off, followed by a period of calm and apathy, and only then will the groundwork be laid for a long-term bullish trend.
Darkfost: Demand has turned negative
Analyst Darkfost highlights the abnormal weakness in spot demand. According to his data, this demand is increasingly dependent on two sources—Strategy and bitcoin exchange-traded funds. The problem is that Strategy has significantly reduced its purchases and recently made a sale, while ETFs have been recording capital outflows week after week. As a result, the average monthly growth in demand has turned negative.
According to Darkfost's estimate, the net outflow has reached approximately -66,000 BTC—a level the market has never seen before. These two channels account for only part of total demand, but their combined influence has repeatedly proven strong enough to move bitcoin's price. Currently, they are working in the opposite direction.
Michaël van de Poppe: A signal like the 2022 bottom
A more optimistic side of the picture is described by Michaël van de Poppe, founder of the MN Fund. He points to a signal in the ratio of bitcoin to the S&P 500 index (SPX). According to him, a similar signal was last observed at the market bottom in 2022. It has now triggered again, indicating a bullish divergence on the three-day timeframe.
Van de Poppe is confident that the outcome will be the same this time. Thus, he suggests that the current weakness in bitcoin may be a late stage of the decline, rather than the start of a new prolonged downturn.
My expert opinion: The synthesis of these signals indicates that the market is in the final phase of capitulation. The combination of a rare bullish divergence on BTC/SPX and an abnormal outflow from ETFs creates classic conditions for a "bear trap." Investors should prepare for high volatility in the coming weeks, but this period could be the best entry point for long-term positions.