Analysts are divided in their estimates of Bitcoin's bottom: from $30,000 to $59,000
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan urged long-term investors not to obsess over finding the exact bottom of bitcoin, but to focus on the next bull cycle. In his analysis, he compared the forecasts of three leading research firms — Galaxy Digital, NYDIG, and Standard Chartered — which reached different conclusions regarding the end of the current correction.
Galaxy Digital's In-Depth Analysis: Bottom Far From Universal
Galaxy Digital specialists examined 13 historical indicators that previously signaled a market bottom. Currently, only four of them are confirmed. Analysts believe that the bitcoin price could fall into the range of $30,000–$54,000, with the most likely support zone at $40,000–$46,000. This suggests that the market has not yet reached its final turning point.
NYDIG: No Capitulation, but Institutions Soften the Fall
NYDIG experts note that current metrics are close to the minimum values of past cycles, but there are no signs of final capitulation — a mass sell-off of the asset by retail and institutional players. However, they emphasize that high institutional demand could make the current pullback less severe than in previous bearish periods.
Standard Chartered: Optimism at $100,000
The most optimistic scenario is offered by Standard Chartered analysts. According to their assessment, the bottom has already been passed at the $59,000 mark, and bitcoin is ready to rise to $100,000 by the end of the year. They cite an improvement in the macroeconomic situation, including easing inflationary pressure, as the key driver.
Common Denominator: Bottom This Year
Despite the range of figures, Hougan highlights three common theses from all reports:
- The market minimum will be reached in the current year;
- The price is closer to the bottom than to the peak;
- The long-term bullish trend remains intact.
In his view, for long-term investors, the exact entry point is not crucial if the asset is expected to grow to $100,000 or higher in the future. Fundamental factors — rising government debt and inflation — continue to support bitcoin's value. However, risks such as the quantum threat and tightening regulation remain significant.
Cryptalist Expert Opinion: The range of forecasts — from $30,000 to $59,000 — reflects high uncertainty in the market. However, I lean towards the view that bitcoin's bottom is near, but not necessarily already passed. Institutional interest does soften the decline, but full capitulation may only occur with a sharp deterioration in the macro climate. Investors should prepare for volatility but not lose sight of the long-term potential.