Bitcoin on the verge of a final sell-off: analysts predict a trend reversal
The Bitcoin (BTC) market is on the verge of a final wave of sell-offs, after which a sustained upward trend may begin. Leading analysts have come to this conclusion by analyzing the current market conditions and key macroeconomic signals.
Attention is currently focused on two factors: the completion of the forced deleveraging cycle and a sharp decline in demand from institutional players. Notably, Strategy sold off part of its Bitcoin holdings for the first time since 2022, while exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been experiencing capital outflows week after week. This has deprived the market of its usual support and set the stage for a final sell-off.
Michael Nado: The Final Dump Before the Lull
Michael Nado, founder of the analytical project The DeFi Report, believes that the deleveraging process in the bear market is already largely complete for Bitcoin and the largest altcoins. However, in his view, there are assets that this wave has not yet touched. He cites HYPE, ZEC, and NEAR as examples. He feels these will be the next candidates for a decline, although he does not specify the exact catalyst or timeline.
Nado expects Bitcoin dominance to increase in the near future against the backdrop of overall market weakness. His scenario is as follows: one more sell-off, followed by a period of calm and apathy, and only then will the foundation for a sustained bull trend emerge.
Darkfost: Demand Has Turned Negative
Analyst Darkfost highlights the critical weakness in spot demand. According to his data, this demand is currently critically dependent on two sources: Strategy and Bitcoin ETFs. The problem is that Strategy has significantly reduced its purchases and recently sold some Bitcoin. Meanwhile, ETFs are recording capital outflows week after week, and as a result, the average monthly demand growth has turned negative.
According to Darkfost's estimate, the net outflow has reached approximately -66,000 BTC — a level the market has never seen before. These two channels form only part of the total demand, but their combined influence has repeatedly proven strong enough to move the price of Bitcoin.
Michaël van de Poppe: A Signal Similar to the 2022 Bottom
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund, describes a different, more optimistic side of the picture. He points to a signal in the ratio of Bitcoin to the S&P 500 index (SPX). According to him, a similar signal was last observed at the market bottom in 2022. It has now triggered again, indicating a bullish divergence on the three-day timeframe.
Van de Poppe is confident that the outcome will be the same this time. Thus, he suggests that the current weakness in Bitcoin could be a late stage of the decline, rather than the start of a new prolonged downturn.
My Expert Commentary: The coincidence of such different signals — from a final sell-off to a bullish divergence — is rare. This indicates that the market is at a critical point. Investors should prepare for high volatility, but it is precisely in such moments that the best entry points for long-term positions are often formed.