Analysts predict bitcoin consolidation: "bear market rally" without liquidity inflow
The digital asset market is showing a local uptick amid macroeconomic signals from the US and geopolitical news. However, in my assessment, the current dynamics are temporary and do not indicate the start of a sustained bullish trend.
Bitcoin has held above the $66,000 mark after a decline at the beginning of the month. The main catalysts for the growth were US inflation data: the core consumer price index slowed to 2.9% year-over-year, matching market expectations. An additional factor was the preliminary agreement between the US and Iran, scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. This led to a drop in Brent crude oil prices to $80 per barrel and a decrease in government bond yields.
Structural Problems Remain
Despite the positive dynamics, the market's fundamental indicators raise questions. Over the week, Bitcoin rose by 1.9%, while Ethereum, on the contrary, fell by 0.4%. Capital inflows into crypto assets remain low: outflows are observed in the segments of spot ETFs and stablecoins. Institutional investors still prefer traditional stock markets.
Analysts call the recent rise from $60,000 a "bear market rally." For a sustained trend toward $100,000 to begin, structural changes in liquidity are needed—an inflow of new money, which is currently absent. A sideways movement is expected in the summer.
Key Factor — Fed Meeting
The central event of the week will be the meeting of the US Federal Reserve. Investors are awaiting updated forecasts from the regulator. If the authorities' rhetoric turns dovish amid cheap oil, the growth of risk assets may continue. Otherwise, the market risks retesting levels below $60,000.
Until a sustained inflow of funds into ETFs and stablecoins appears, it is premature to talk about long-term growth. The baseline scenario for the summer remains consolidation.
My comment: The current situation resembles a classic "bear market bounce"—the market reacts to positive news, but fundamental drivers for growth are absent. Investors should focus on ETF inflow data rather than short-term price movements. Until clear signals of liquidity recovery emerge, Bitcoin's price will likely remain in the $60,000–$70,000 range.