Analysts cannot reach a consensus on bitcoin's price: forecasts range from $30,000 to $59,000
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan urges long-term bitcoin holders not to chase the perfect entry point, but to focus on the prospects of the next bull cycle. In a recent analytical note, he compared the forecasts of three leading research firms — Galaxy Digital, NYDIG, and Standard Chartered. The result is telling: there is no consensus among experts on whether the bottom has been reached.
Galaxy Digital analyzed 13 historical indicators that have traditionally signaled a market reversal. Currently, only four of them are confirmed. The company's analysts anticipate a price drop to a range of $30,000 to $54,000, with the most likely support zone being $40,000–46,000. This is a fairly wide corridor, indicating a high degree of uncertainty.
NYDIG specialists, in turn, note that current metrics are close to the minimum values of past cycles, but the market still lacks signs of a final capitulation. However, in their view, institutional demand could make the current pullback shallower than in previous periods. This is an important nuance: the influx of large capital changes the very structure of the correction.
The most optimistic position is held by Standard Chartered. The bank believes the bottom has already been passed at the $59,000 mark. Analysts expect growth to $100,000 by the end of the year, linking this to an improving macroeconomic environment. This scenario looks bold, but not without foundation — especially against the backdrop of a weakening dollar and rising inflation expectations.
Despite the range of figures, Hougan highlights three common theses that unite all three reports:
- the market low will be reached this year;
- the current price is closer to the bottom than to the peak;
- the long-term bullish trend remains unshaken.
According to the Bitwise representative, for strategic investors, the exact entry point is not crucial if the asset is expected to grow to $100,000 and beyond. Fundamental drivers — rising government debt and inflation — continue to strengthen bitcoin's investment thesis. The main risks, he says, are related to the quantum threat and tightening regulation.
My comment: The current situation resembles a classic accumulation phase, where the market fluctuates in a wide range and analysts diverge in their assessments. It is precisely at such moments that the best entry points for patient investors are formed. The spread of forecasts from $30,000 to $59,000 is not chaos, but a signal that the market is seeking equilibrium. Personally, I lean towards NYDIG's view: institutional demand will soften the depth of the correction, but the final capitulation is still ahead.