Bitcoin on the verge of a final sell-off: analysts predict a market reversal
The Bitcoin (BTC) market is on the verge of a final wave of sell-offs, after which, according to a number of leading analysts, a solid bottom will form for sustainable growth. The current situation is characterized by a rare confluence of factors: forced deleveraging of borrowed positions and a sharp decline in institutional demand. However, this is precisely the paradox — many experts are already seeing the first signs of an impending reversal.
The key catalyst for discussion has been an unprecedented situation in the market. Strategy sold part of its Bitcoin holdings for the first time since 2022, while exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are seeing capital drain week after week, depriving the market of its usual support. This has created unique conditions for the final phase of the correction.
Michael Nado: The Final Dump Before the Calm
Michael Nado, founder of the analytical project The DeFi Report, believes that the deleveraging of borrowed positions in the bear market has already been largely priced into Bitcoin and leading altcoins. However, there are assets that have so far been bypassed by this process. Among them, he highlights HYPE, ZEC, and NEAR. According to his assessment, these coins will be the next candidates for a decline, although he does not specify exact timing or triggers.
Nado predicts that as the scenario unfolds, we will see an increase in Bitcoin dominance amid overall market weakness. His vision is this: one more dump, then a period of calm and apathy, and only after that will the groundwork be laid for a long-term bullish trend.
Darkfost: Demand Has Turned Negative
Analyst Darkfost focuses on the critical weakening of spot demand. According to his data, this indicator is becoming increasingly dependent on two sources: Strategy and Bitcoin ETFs. The problem is that Strategy has significantly reduced its purchases and recently made a sale, while ETFs are recording sustained capital outflows. As a result, the average monthly growth in demand has turned negative.
Darkfost estimates the net outflow at approximately -66,000 BTC — a level the market has never seen before. Although these two channels form only part of total demand, their combined influence has repeatedly proven sufficient to move the price of Bitcoin.
Michaël van de Poppe: A Signal Like the 2022 Bottom
A more optimistic picture is painted by Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Capital. He points to a signal in the ratio of Bitcoin to the S&P 500 index (SPX). A similar signal was last observed at the market bottom in 2022. It has now triggered again, indicating a bullish divergence on the three-day timeframe.
Van de Poppe is confident that the outcome will be the same this time. Thus, he suggests that the current weakness in Bitcoin could be a late stage of the decline, rather than the start of a new prolonged downturn.
My view: The combination of these factors — a rare mix of forced liquidation and weakening institutional demand — indeed creates conditions for a final wave of sell-offs. However, it is important to understand that after such a dump, the market may enter a phase of prolonged consolidation before a new upward cycle begins. The key level to confirm a reversal will be the support zone around $70,000–$75,000. If Bitcoin holds above these values, van de Poppe's scenario will receive strong confirmation.