Where is the bottom of Bitcoin? Analysts from the largest funds cannot reach a consensus.
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan urges long-term holders not to obsess over finding the perfect entry point and to focus on the next bull cycle. He backed his position with an analysis of forecasts from three leading research firms — Galaxy Digital, NYDIG, and Standard Chartered. The takeaway: there is no consensus on the bottom, and that is normal for a market in a phase of uncertainty.
Galaxy Digital: Insufficient Bottom Signals
Galaxy specialists examined 13 historical indicators that traditionally precede a market bottom. Currently, only four of them are confirmed. This suggests that the final capitulation has not yet occurred. The company's analysts anticipate a price drop into a wide range from $30,000 to $54,000, with the most likely support zone being $40,000–46,000.
NYDIG: Close to Lows, But No Panic
NYDIG experts note that current metrics are already approaching values seen at the bottom of past cycles. However, the key element — mass capitulation by retail investors — is still absent. Institutional demand, in their view, could smooth out the depth of the pullback, making it less painful than in previous "crypto winters."
Standard Chartered: The Bottom Is Already Behind Us
The most optimistic scenario comes from Standard Chartered. The bank believes the bottom was passed at the $59,000 mark, and the market is now ready for recovery. The forecast is a rise to $100,000 by year-end amid an improving macroeconomic environment.
Despite the discrepancies in figures, Hougan highlights three common themes from all the reports: the market low will be reached this year, the current price is closer to the bottom than to the peak, and the long-term bullish trend remains intact.
For those looking at a multi-year horizon, the exact entry point is not critical — if Bitcoin truly rises to $100,000 and beyond, a difference of a few thousand dollars becomes insignificant. The fundamental drivers — growing government debt and inflation — continue to work in favor of the first cryptocurrency. Key risks: the quantum threat and tightening regulation.
My opinion: The market is in a classic consolidation phase ahead of a major move. The forecast range from $30,000 to $59,000 indicates high volatility in the coming months, but historically, such periods precede the strongest rallies. Investors with a horizon of a year or more should use any deep drawdowns for accumulation.