Bitcoin on the verge of a final sell-off: experts see signals of a trend reversal
The Bitcoin (BTC) market is on the verge of what could be the final wave of decline before a long-awaited reversal. Several authoritative analysts agree that the current correction is not the start of a new prolonged downturn, but rather the final stage before the formation of a sustainable bottom for subsequent growth.
The key factors shaping sentiment are the forced reduction of leveraged positions and a sharp weakening of institutional demand. For the first time in a long while, we are witnessing a unique situation: Strategy, a company known for its relentless BTC buying, has sold some of its coins. At the same time, capital has been flowing out of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) week after week, depriving the market of its usual support. This creates an extremely tense, but according to experts, purifying atmosphere.
Michael Nado: The Final Dump Before the Calm
Michael Nado, founder of the analytical project The DeFi Report, believes that the deleveraging process is largely complete for Bitcoin and the largest altcoins. However, he notes that there are assets that this "cleanse" has not yet touched. He cites HYPE, ZEC, and NEAR as examples. In his view, these will be the next candidates for a decline, although he does not specify exact timing or a catalyst.
Nado expects that amid overall market weakness, Bitcoin dominance will continue to rise. His scenario is this: one more dump, followed by a period of calm and apathy, and only then will the foundation for a sustainable bullish trend emerge.
Darkfost: Demand Has Turned Negative
Analyst Darkfost highlights the critical weakness in spot demand. According to his data, this demand is increasingly dependent on two sources—Strategy and Bitcoin ETFs. The problem is that Strategy has significantly reduced its purchases and even sold part of its reserves, while ETFs are recording sustained capital outflows. As a result, the average monthly demand growth has turned negative.
According to Darkfost's estimate, the net outflow has reached approximately -66,000 BTC—a level the market has never seen before. These two channels form only part of total demand, but their combined influence is strong enough to move Bitcoin's price, and currently, this influence is working against the bulls.
Michael van de Poppe: A Signal Like the 2022 Bottom
A more optimistic side of the picture is described by Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Fund. He points to a signal in the ratio of Bitcoin to the S&P 500 index (SPX). According to him, a similar signal was last observed at the market bottom in 2022. It has now triggered again, indicating a bullish divergence on the three-day timeframe.
Van de Poppe is confident that the outcome will be the same this time. Thus, he suggests that the current weakness in Bitcoin could be the late stage of a decline, rather than the start of a new prolonged downturn.
My comment: In the current situation, I lean towards the scenario described by van de Poppe. The combination of a technical signal with a fundamental "flush" of positions often precedes strong reversals. However, a full recovery of institutional demand is a key condition. Until we see stabilization in ETF inflows and a resumption of purchases by Strategy, any rally will be speculative in nature and could prove to be false.