Expert Review: Consolidation Phase in the Crypto Market Inevitable Until Structural Changes in Liquidity Emerge
The digital asset market showed a local rebound amid macroeconomic signals from the US. Bitcoin managed to hold above the $66,000 mark, supported by a slowdown in the core consumer price index to 2.9% year-over-year. This figure came in below expectations, which is traditionally perceived by markets as a positive signal for risk assets.
An additional catalyst was the news of a preliminary agreement between the US and Iran, scheduled for June 19. The reduction in geopolitical tensions led to a drop in Brent crude oil prices to $80 per barrel, which automatically lowered government bond yields. Under such conditions, investors begin to reassess their portfolios in favor of riskier instruments.
Ether lags behind, while ETFs are in no hurry to attract capital
However, while Bitcoin gained 1.9% over the week, Ethereum showed weak dynamics, losing 0.4%. Notably, capital inflows into crypto assets remain low. Outflows are observed in the segments of spot Bitcoin ETFs and stablecoins. Institutional investors still prefer the traditional stock market over digital currencies.
Analysts have classified the recent rise from $60,000 as a "bear market rally." To form a sustainable upward trend capable of taking Bitcoin to $100,000, structural changes in liquidity are needed. For now, there are no signs of "new money" flowing into the market, making sideways movement the most likely scenario for the summer months.
Key trigger — the Fed meeting
The main event of the current week will be the Federal Reserve meeting. Investors are expecting updated macroeconomic forecasts from the regulator. If the authorities' rhetoric turns dovish amid falling oil prices, the growth of risk assets may continue. Otherwise, the market risks retesting levels below $60,000.
Experts recommend focusing not on news headlines in the current conditions, but on real capital flows into ETFs and stablecoins. Until a sustained inflow of funds into these instruments appears, it is premature to talk about a long-term bullish trend.
My expert opinion: The market is indeed in a consolidation phase, and I agree that without an inflow of institutional capital through ETFs, we will not see a sustained move above $70,000. However, it is worth considering that the decline in core inflation is a long-term trend that could change the sentiment of major players by autumn. Summer consolidation is a time for accumulation, not panic.