The Strait of Hormuz: Why tankers are in no hurry to return and how this will affect Bitcoin
The head of Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL), the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, made a statement that raises questions about the pace of de-escalation in the region. According to him, even after the signing of the agreement between the US and Iran, shipowners will not immediately rush to return tankers to routes through the Strait of Hormuz. This process, according to the expert's estimates, will take from several weeks to a whole month.
Jotaro Tamura, CEO of MOL, emphasized that the announced agreement must be real and backed by facts. Only then will shipping companies feel fully safe again. Restoring previous traffic, in his opinion, could take from a couple of weeks to a whole month. Given the experience of recent months, when operators have learned caution, this forecast looks more than realistic.
Reality of the Agreement: Words and Deeds
Before the conflict began in late February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes were transported through the strait. Since then, daily traffic has dropped sharply. Tamura pointed to a series of disruptions since the start of the war, and now operators are not rushing to conclusions. "Given the experience of the last couple of months, I think it's reasonable to assume that the return of vessels will take at least a few weeks, if not a month," he stated.
The company's leader emphasized that the signed agreement between the countries is not enough. Real conditions and their implementation in practice in the Strait of Hormuz are important. Only when these conditions are met will shipowners decide to return to the route. MOL has over 900 vessels. Before the deal, the company withdrew four vessels from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven MOL vessels are still awaiting passage clearance.
Meanwhile, some cargo has already begun moving. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel with an Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement. It carried 62,370 tons of gas. Officials reported that a total of ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign ones have crossed the strait. The signing of the agreement is expected on Friday in Geneva. The speed of restoring traffic along the route will depend on how much vessel owners trust the new corridor.
What This Means for Bitcoin
The resumption of safe navigation reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies, leading to a decline in inflation expectations. In such conditions, traditional markets shift to growth mode, reducing investor demand for protective alternative assets, including bitcoin. As a result, the stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz may temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflow in favor of stocks and commodities.
Expert Comment: In my view, the current situation is a classic example of how macroeconomic stability reduces bitcoin's appeal as "digital gold." However, we should not forget that the long-term trend toward de-dollarization and growing institutional interest in BTC remain in force. A temporary slowdown in growth could be an excellent opportunity to enter the market.