Wintermute Analysis: Bitcoin risks testing the $50,000 zone despite the rebound
Analysts at market maker Wintermute warn that Bitcoin's (BTC) recent bounce above $65,000 is not yet a trend reversal. In their assessment, the leading cryptocurrency could retest the $50,000 zone before the market finds a sustainable bottom.
Last week, BTC broke its prolonged four-week losing streak, bouncing off support at $60,000 and returning to levels above $65,000. This momentum was driven by two key macroeconomic factors that, for the first time in a long while, worked in unison.
What Triggered the Bounce
The first factor was the May US inflation data. The annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) stood at 4.2%, marking the highest level since April 2023 and the third consecutive acceleration. However, the figure matched market expectations. According to Wintermute, this was the trigger: market participants had priced in higher values, but the reality turned out to be softer. Core inflation, meanwhile, slowed to 2.9%, signaling that the peak of the energy impulse has passed.
The second and more significant driver was the de-escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran. After more than 100 days of confrontation, the parties announced a deal, agreeing to open the Strait of Hormuz and lift the naval blockade. The formal signing is scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland. Against this backdrop, Brent crude oil plummeted: the price fell from $110 to levels above $80 over the month, losing 6.6% in the past week alone.
The reduction in the geopolitical risk premium dragged down the dollar and government bond yields. Cheaper oil directly improves inflation forecasts, so the CPI data and the end of the conflict this week reinforced each other rather than canceling out. Wintermute identifies the first Federal Reserve meeting under Kevin Warsh's leadership on June 17 as the nearest catalyst.
Why the Bottom Has Not Yet Been Reached
The main question, according to Wintermute analysts, is when the market will turn, and the answer lies in liquidity. Bitcoin remains a macro asset that grows on excess liquidity through three channels: stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and public companies holding crypto (DAT). None of these have turned around yet.
Assets under management at DAT companies have fallen from roughly $220 billion to $140 billion, and outside of Strategy, Bitmine, and Strive, new capital raising has virtually ceased. Exchange-traded funds are experiencing their longest streak of outflows since launch, while inflows into stablecoins are following the same downward trajectory.
Wintermute recalled how the previous cycle began: real growth started with the ETF approval in early 2024 and the subsequent capital inflows. Now, institutional participants remain on the sidelines, while retail investors are busy trading stocks and leveraged funds. Until this turns around, the company believes it is premature to declare a bottom.
Wintermute's main advice is to watch capital flows, not price or headlines. The risk-reward ratio in the low $60,000 range looks attractive in the long term, and each sell-off leaves a more resilient holder base. Nevertheless, the company does not rule out that Bitcoin could move into the $50,000 zone before the situation improves.
Cryptalist's Comment: Wintermute's forecast is not panic, but a sober look at the market structure. As long as institutional capital inflow channels are blocked, any bounce is merely a correction within a downtrend. Investors should prepare for the possibility that $50,000 will become not just a support level, but a zone where the fate of the current cycle will be decided.