The Strait of Hormuz: Why tankers won't return to the route instantly and how it affects bitcoin
The CEO of Mitsui OSK Lines, one of the world's largest tanker operators, made an important statement: shipowners will not immediately return to routes through the Strait of Hormuz. In his estimation, even after the conclusion of a proposed agreement between the US and Iran, this process will take at least several weeks.
Jotaro Tamura, the company's head, emphasized that the announced agreement must be real and backed by facts. Only under this condition will shipping companies feel completely safe again. Consequently, restoring previous traffic could take from a couple of weeks to a whole month.
Realities of the Strait of Hormuz: Lessons from Recent Months
Before the conflict began at the end of February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes were transported through the strait. Since then, daily traffic has sharply declined. Tamura pointed to a series of disruptions since the start of the war — over recent months, operators have learned caution and are not rushing to conclusions.
"Given the experience of the last couple of months, I think it's reasonable to assume that the return of vessels will take at least several weeks, if not a month," he stated in an interview.
The company's head stressed that a signed agreement between the countries is not enough. Real conditions and their practical implementation in the Strait of Hormuz are important. Only when these conditions are met will shipowners decide to return to the route.
MOL has over 900 vessels. Before the deal was reached, the company withdrew four vessels from the Persian Gulf without paying fees to Iran. At least seven MOL vessels are still awaiting passage clearance.
Meanwhile, some cargo has already begun moving. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement. It carried 62,370 tons of gas. Officials reported that a total of ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign vessels have crossed the strait.
The signing of the agreement is expected on Friday in Geneva. The speed of restoring traffic along the route will depend on how much vessel owners trust the new corridor.
What This Means for Bitcoin
The resumption of safe navigation reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies, leading to a decline in inflation expectations. Under such conditions, traditional markets shift into growth mode, reducing investor demand for protective alternative assets, including Bitcoin. As a result, stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz could temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflow in favor of stocks and commodities.
My expert commentary: The Bitcoin market continues to react to macroeconomic signals rather than isolated geopolitical events. However, I believe that a temporary decline in hedging demand is not a trend reversal but a correction. As soon as inflation risks rise again, capital will return to digital assets.