Ethereum whales have purchased $950 million worth of ETH: has the bottom truly formed?
The price of Ethereum (ETH) has rebounded 22% from its June low, managing to hold above a key trendline for institutional investors. This rise coincided with renewed capital inflows into spot ETH ETFs, which had been recording outflows for weeks. However, despite the positive momentum, the market remains in a zone of uncertainty.
Large Holders Increase Positions
Large Ethereum holders continued to actively accumulate the cryptocurrency even during the decline, as confirmed by recent on-chain data. Since June 10, the balances of millionaire wallets have grown from 124.85 million ETH to 125.4 million ETH. Thus, in just one week, whales bought coins worth a total of approximately $950 million. This is a powerful signal: "smart money" sees value at current levels and is increasing positions without hesitation, ignoring the fear of retail traders.
Alongside this, on-chain metrics recorded a decline in seller activity. Mass panic in the market subsided around June 7, when the coin found a local low. It was then that the net change in positions on exchanges turned negative, signaling an outflow of coins from trading platforms. This indicates a transfer of cryptocurrency to cold wallets for long-term storage. This trend is supported by large whales, who are quickly buying up any available volumes. As a result, a seller deficit has formed in the market, which usually foreshadows an imminent trend change.
ETFs Return to Positive Territory
The sentiment reversal occurred very timely. Literally the day after the price held above the VWAP line, on June 15, net inflows into spot ETH ETFs amounted to $22.5 million. This positive result broke an extremely painful series of declines. From May 11 to June 12, capital outflows were recorded almost daily, with the exception of just two trading sessions. For comparison, the situation looked much better in early May: on May 1, funds attracted $101 million, and on May 5, another $98 million.
Currently, the total net assets under management are approaching the $10.04 billion mark. The recovery in May also started with small amounts, which then grew into a series of successful days. Therefore, if a market bottom is confirmed, we could see a repeat of this positive scenario. However, relying solely on ETFs would be a mistake, as key processes are now occurring directly within the network.
Key Levels and Hidden Threat
Currently, Ethereum is trading around $1,771, holding above the monthly VWAP, which is at the $1,705 level. Since the beginning of June, the coin has gained about 22% from its low of $1,507, but this is still not enough for a definitive reversal. To confirm an uptrend, buyers need to close a daily candle above the resistance at $1,851. This would allow the asset to return to its previous trading range.
The main danger now lies in excessively high leverage. Total open interest in ETH futures has jumped from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, and at its peak exceeded $10.27 billion. Typically, a reliable foundation for growth is formed only after the complete liquidation of excess leveraged positions. Currently, we are witnessing the opposite process — open interest is rising along with the price. This state of affairs indicates the dominance of margin traders, rather than real demand in the spot market. Overloaded long positions could trigger a wave of forced liquidations at the slightest downward movement, so it is too early to talk about the end of capitulation.
My analysis: The accumulation of $950 million by whales is undoubtedly a bullish signal, indicating a high probability of forming a long-term bottom. However, the current overheating of the derivatives market and high open interest create a risk of a sharp position dump. Only a confident breakout of the $1,851 barrier will help distinguish a true bottom from a temporary rebound. Until then, investors should remain cautious and not succumb to euphoria.