The Strait of Hormuz: tanker returns will be delayed by weeks — what this means for Bitcoin
The head of Mitsui OSK Lines, the world's largest tanker operator by number of vessels, made a significant statement that directly impacts global energy markets and, consequently, the macroeconomic backdrop for bitcoin. According to him, even after the signing of an agreement between the US and Iran, shipowners will not immediately return tankers to routes through the Strait of Hormuz. This process will take at least several weeks.
A Real Deal is the Only Path to Safety
Jotaro Tamura, CEO of MOL, emphasized that the announced agreement must be real and backed by facts. Only then will shipping companies feel completely safe again. Restoring previous traffic, in his estimation, could take from a couple of weeks to a whole month.
Before the conflict began in late February, more than a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas volumes were transported through the strait. Since then, daily traffic has dropped sharply. Tamura pointed to a series of disruptions since the start of the war: over the past few months, operators have learned caution and are not rushing to conclusions. "Given the experience of the last couple of months, I think it's reasonable to assume that the return of vessels will take at least a few weeks, if not a month," he stated.
The company's head noted that the signed agreement between the countries is not enough. Real conditions and their practical implementation in the Strait of Hormuz are important. Only when these conditions are met will shipowners decide to return to the route.
Current Situation and First Signs of Recovery
MOL has over 900 vessels. Before the deal was reached, the company removed four vessels from the Persian Gulf without paying Iran's fees. At least seven MOL vessels are still awaiting passage clearance.
Meanwhile, some cargo has already begun moving. The Indian gas carrier Disha became the first vessel under the Indian flag to pass through the strait after the agreement. It carried 62,370 tons of gas. Officials reported that a total of ten vessels under the Indian flag and five foreign ones have crossed the strait.
The signing of the agreement is expected on Friday in Geneva. The speed of restoring traffic along the route will depend on how much shipowners trust the new corridor.
What This Means for Bitcoin
The resumption of safe shipping reduces global logistics risks and stabilizes energy supplies, leading to a decline in inflation expectations. Under such conditions, traditional markets shift to a growth mode, reducing investor demand for defensive alternative assets, including bitcoin. As a result, the stabilization of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz could temporarily slow the growth of the cryptocurrency market due to capital outflows in favor of stocks and commodities.
My analysis: Although de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is certainly a positive signal for the global economy, for bitcoin it means a reduction in the "risk premium." In the short term, we may see consolidation or even a slight correction in BTC, as investors reassess their hedging strategies. However, this is a temporary phenomenon: bitcoin's long-term fundamental factors remain unchanged.