Ethereum whales have accumulated $950 million: is a bottom forming or is this a trap?
The price of Ethereum (ETH) has made an impressive 22% rebound from its June low, holding above a key trend line for institutional investors. This surge coincided with renewed inflows into spot ETH ETFs, which had previously recorded steady capital outflows for weeks. However, as is often the case in the crypto market, complex processes requiring close analysis lie beneath the surface optimism.
Large Holders Act Ahead of the Curve
Ethereum whales did not wait for confirmation of a reversal and began actively accumulating coins during the decline phase. According to Santiment data, since June 10, the balances of millionaire wallets have increased from 124.85 million ETH to 125.4 million ETH. Over the week, they purchased coins worth approximately $950 million. This is a strong signal: major players see current levels as attractive entry points.
Concurrently, on-chain metrics recorded a sharp decline in seller activity. Mass panic subsided as early as June 7, when the price found a local bottom. The net exchange position change indicator turned negative, signaling an outflow of coins from trading platforms. This is a classic pattern of transferring funds to cold storage, indicating long-term investor intentions.
ETF: A Long-Awaited Reversal
The sentiment shift came at a very opportune time. On June 15, the day after the price consolidated above the VWAP line, net inflows into spot ETH ETFs amounted to $22.5 million. This positive result broke a highly painful streak: from May 11 to June 12, outflows were recorded almost daily, with only two trading sessions as exceptions. For comparison, the situation looked much better in early May: on May 1, funds attracted $101 million, and on May 5, another $98 million.
The total net assets under management for ETFs are already approaching the $10.04 billion mark. The recovery in May also began with small amounts, which later grew into a series of successful days. Therefore, if a market bottom is confirmed, we could see a repeat of this positive scenario.
Key Levels: What's Next?
Currently, Ethereum is trading around $1,771, holding above the monthly VWAP, which is at the $1,705 level. To confirm an upward trend, buyers need to close a daily candle above the resistance at $1,851. This would allow the asset to return to its previous trading range.
If a decline begins, the first support level will be $1,624, with a critical point at the $1,507 low. A daily close below this mark would force the market to seek new lows. Only a confident break above the $1,851 barrier will help distinguish a true bottom from a temporary rebound.
The Derivatives Factor: A Hidden Threat
The main danger currently lies in excessively high leverage. The total open interest in ETH futures has surged from $8.86 billion to $9.96 billion, peaking above $10.27 billion. Typically, a reliable foundation for growth forms only after the complete liquidation of excess leveraged positions. Now, we are seeing the opposite process: open interest is rising along with the price. This indicates the dominance of margin traders rather than genuine spot market demand. Overloaded long positions could trigger a wave of forced liquidations at the slightest downward move, so it is still premature to declare the end of capitulation.
My view: Whale accumulation and renewed ETF inflows are undoubtedly positive signals. However, the derivatives market appears overheated, and sustainable growth is unlikely without a correction of this bubble. The true bottom will likely be confirmed only after a large-scale liquidation of excess long positions. Until then, any rebound could prove to be a trap for bulls.